How ’bout that Malik Nabers, everyone? He sure looks every bit matchup-proof, and after his theatrics in the overtime shootout against the Cowboys last week, he’ll have a test against Kansas City’s Trent McDuffie on Sunday Night Football. Indeed, as sample sizes started to round into form last week, so did a bit more of the macro picture of what we might expect from these 32 NFL teams going forward. Teams saw too many quarterbacks injured and sacrificed—Jayden Daniels, Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, and Brock Purdy headline the list of marquee names that are shelved. Rookie tight end phenom Tyler Warren is banged up, as is second-year blast-off Tucker Kraft. Bhayshul Tuten might officially be a thing already. R.J. Harvey and Kaleb Johnson? Not so much. Is this the week the cream begins to separate from the crop? As ever, we remain on the agricultural beat in that regard, separating out stashes, dart throws, breakouts, and, probably most importantly, running back sleepers.
The refrain remains the same—All I want is for you to be better than your friends. You’re going to be surrounded by them on Sunday, probably. How sweet would it be if you could be sure you’ve checked every box possible that might guarantee you a resounding victory this week? Some kick-your-feet-up insights? I’ve got some. And I know my audience. The smoke-break audience. The quick-scan-of-the-phone-on-the-way-to-the-fridge audience. The I-ain’t-reading-all-that-but-good-luck folk. I’m a man of the people.
And so: the Five Lists of Five series. Think of these as byte-sized, two-minutes-to-yourself lists to scan during your weekend as you foam at the mouth for any competitive fantasy edge. As much relevant analysis as I can fit into, like, ~250 words per player.
Below: Top five smash starts for fantasy football Week 3. Must-starters based on matchup and sky-high ceilings.
Here are the other offerings from my 2025 Fantasy Football Five Lists of Five: Week 3 edition:
- Top five breakout running backs for Week 3 of 2025 fantasy football
- Top five WR/CB matchups to target for Week 3 fantasy football
- Top five breakout wide receivers for 2025 fantasy football Week 3
- Top five players to stash for Week 3 of 2025 fantasy football
Follow my handle @dansby_edits for all of my fantasy football content—as well as plenty of NFL and College Football betting goodies—all season long.
Top five smash starts for Week 3 of 2025 fantasy football
Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Rams)
This is the week to expect cosmic-storm form. In the most recent Eagles–Rams clash in January, Barkley detonated for 205 total yards and two touchdowns on 31 touches, including 92 rushing yards vs eight-man boxes; across his last two meetings with this opponent he’s stacked 347 rushing yards and three TDs — a proof-of-concept blueprint for how Philadelphia can stress this front. The 2025 volume is already bankable: 77% snap share, 45 touches in two games (top-10 RB opportunity share), and five inside-the-10 carries — tied for third league-wide.
The trenches tilt this matchup. Jordan Mailata enters Week 3 with a 95.3 PFF run-block grade and 26.7% impact-block rate, and Philadelphia allowed just 3 pressures on 27 pass-blocking snaps last game — fourth in pass-blocking efficiency for the week. That forward push unlocks Barkley’s finishing traits: 3.1 yards after contact per attempt and a 21% broken-tackle rate through two weeks. On the other side, the Rams have permitted a 51% rushing success rate and a 27.8% run-stop win rate (bottom-eight) in the early sample, and interior injuries further thin the rotation.
Macro context juices the ceiling. PFF flags Eagles–Rams as a game where both offenses rank top-14 in success rate and EPA/play, a candidate to push past 44.5 with increased play volume. It also notes that Los Angeles’ defensive profile has been buoyed by “in-progress” offenses faced — a different animal than a downhill, schedule-keeping Philadelphia run game. That’s the exact ecosystem in which Barkley historically flips drives into red-zone strings against this opponent.
Call your shot, Birds Nation and Saquon owners: in a setting this fertile, Barkley cracks 24+ touches, surges past 130 total yards, and posts 1–2 touchdowns as the hammer in short-yard and inside-the-10 sequences. If Philadelphia owns time of possession the way the efficiency markers imply, Barkley has a true overall RB1 path on volume, line dominance, and a matchup he’s already broken open.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts (vs. Titans)
Once again, with Daniel Jones, the quarterback tailwind to some exciting offensive weapons feels rea.: Daniel Jones is QB2 in fantasy points per game, leads all QBs in yards per attempt, and ranks sixth in passer rating, 18th in highly accurate throw rate, and ninth in catchable target rate through two weeks. He’s also adding it on the ground: 6.5 rushes and 14 rushing yards per game with three rushing TDs. That matters because this offense is living on schedule—the Colts haven’t punted yet this season. When Jones is kept clean, he’s completing 76.7% of his throws at 10.2 YPA, the exact efficiency profile that extends drives and multiplies Taylor’s touch opportunities.
The matchup cooperates. FantasyPros notes Tennessee’s pass defense just got torched for 9.0 YPA, 105.4 passer rating, and +8.4% CPOE in Week 2, and the Titans own the 13th-lowest pressure rate—a setup that should again keep Jones clean and the chains moving. Game context reinforces positive script: Colts -4, O/U 43.5, pointing toward sustained red-zone trips where Taylor’s role spikes in value. Coverage-wise, PFF’s man/zone report shows Tennessee using top-10 man coverage rate (~29%) with ~65% zone, and grading below average in team man metrics; that structure compresses perimeter explosives and naturally funnels production inside—exactly where Taylor thrives behind downhill concepts.
Taylor’s form mirrors the role. On film, I’ve noticed renewed burst and balance through contact, and Steichen’s sequencing leans RB-centric at the goal line when drives stack. In a fertile setting like this, Taylor clears 20–24 touches, 105–130 total yards, and 1–2 touchdowns. With Jones’ clean-pocket efficiency, no-punt early-season profile, and a Titans front failing to generate heat, Taylor is a locked-in RB1 with legitimate overall RB1 paths this week.
Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets (vs. Buccaneers)
The quarterback switch is the catalyst. With Tyrod Taylor under center, the Jets’ passing game consolidates toward its true alpha. In Taylor’s recent Jets sample (40 dropbacks), he’s posted 7.73 adjusted YPA, taken just two sacks, and protected the ball — the precise efficiency profile that stabilizes drives and feeds first reads. On 33 Jets pass attempts with Taylor, Wilson has seen nine targets (27.3%) — immediate signal that the ball goes where it should.
Coverage-wise, this sets up cleanly. PFF’s most recent man/zone report logs Tampa Bay at 28.0% man and 63.2% zone through two weeks. Against man, Wilson has run 11 routes for 3/48, a 27.3% target rate and a massive 1.25 fantasy points per route (FF PTS/RR); against zone, he’s logged 45 routes for 8/97, a 26.7% target rate and 0.39 FF PTS/RR. Overall, Wilson ranks 4th of 96 WRs in FF PTS/RR vs man — a direct match for Todd Bowles’ above-average man usage.
Game context tilts volume his way. TB –6.5, O/U 43.5 implies a trailing script that lifts attempts. If that wasn’t enough, the venerable Derek Brown of FantasyPros lists Wilson among the week’s must-start plays for Jets–Bucs. That same scouting note tags Tampa’s defense as susceptible if you defeat the blitz — a good fit for Taylor’s quick-trigger style and Wilson’s first-read role.
This isn’t just vibes — it’s usage plus leverage. Wilson leads Jets wideouts in both first-read share and red-zone looks (team section), and Bowles’ heavy-box/run-choke identity forces single coverage outside often enough to matter. Add the note that Tampa has allowed top-10 yards per attempt and a top-10 success rate per dropback to opposing passers through two weeks, and the efficiency runway widens.
Call it: in this blitz-forward, man-leaning environment, Wilson commands 10–12 targets, converts 6–9 receptions, and pushes 95–120 yards with prime touchdown probability on isolation fades and glance RPOs. That’s a top-eight WR profile this week — not just startable, but the centerpiece of New York’s passing plan with Tyrod Taylor.
George Pickens, WR, Dallas Cowboys (at Bears)
Pickens—to his chaotic delight, I’m sure—is surging into full alpha usage in his first season with Dak Prescott as his QB. It’s been a scale into true X usage, and the peripherals scream eruption. Routes are up to 43.0 per game this season (from 29.9 last year), and despite modest raw totals through two weeks, he’s drawn more pass-interference yardage than entire WR corps, leads the league in end-zone targets (5), and owns a 57.1% red-zone target share; that profile delivered WR8 in fantasy usage last week.
The matchup amplifies everything. Chicago is without Jaylon Johnson again, and the trickle-down was immediate: the Bears just allowed 334 yards and five TDs to Jared Goff, while their replacement corners have struggled — Nahshon Wright (PFF 52.7; 51st/63) and Tyrique Stevenson (44.7; 59th/63). Scheme-wise, this is tailor-made for an outside alpha. PFF charts the Bears as a top-five man-coverage team and, in man, they’ve allowed the most yards per coverage snap (9.80), third-most yards per target (11.3), and third-highest first-down+TD rate (61.5%).
Reception Perception shows Pickens’ game lining up perfectly: 77.8% success vs man (on 63.2% of routes) and 80% vs press; the in-breaking stuff is popping — slant on 12.3% of routes (85.7% success) and dig on 17.5% (90% success) — while curls/comebacks were 19.3% of Week 2 routes, the exact trust patterns Dak historically feeds his X on. PFF’s man/zone splits for Dallas also show Pickens producing in both families (vs man: 35 routes, 3/50, 14.3% TPRR, 0.23 FF PTS/RR; vs zone: 52 routes, 5/48, 13.5% TPRR, 0.19), so usage isn’t one-dimensional.
I project ol’ George for right around 8–11 targets, 5–7 receptions, 90–120 yards, and at least one touchdown with ease. Multi-score upside is fully in range given his end-zone workload. He’s a top-12 WR with legitimate top-five potential this week.
Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears (vs. Cowboys)
Odunze already profiles as Chicago’s WR1 early on into his second-year campaign: 20 targets, 13 receptions, 3 TDs through two games, plus elite market share markers — 29.9% XFP share (fifth among all players), 22.2 XFP/G (WR3), 23.8 FPG (WR4), and 33.3% first-read share. He’s also moving around: 35.1% slot rate, but most perimeter reps come at RWR, aligning him frequently with Kaiir Elam. In primary coverage, Elam has already surrendered 14 targets, 12 receptions, 132 yards, while Trevon Diggs has allowed 104 yards and two TDs; DaRon Bland is working back from a foot issue.
Coverage tendencies are a bull’s-eye. PFF notes Dallas uses zone at the highest rate and, from those looks, ranks bottom-five in team coverage grade (47.4), open-target rate allowed (75.0%), yards per target (10.7), and yards per coverage snap (8.32). Odunze’s production versus zone has been robust: 65 routes, 8/114, 16.9% target rate, 19.4 PPR, 0.30 FF PTS/RR; he’s also flashed against man (17 routes, 5/51, 41.2% target rate, 0.95 FF PTS/RR).
The macro environment is as friendly as it gets: Bears–Cowboys is a circled shootout with the No. 2 total (50.5), and PFF’s fantasy-friendly defense report groups both secondaries among the seven worst so far, with Chicago additionally missing multiple DBs.
It’s usage, leverage, and matchup convergence. Forecast: pencil in 9–12 targets, 6–9 grabs, 95–125 yards, and strong TD odds via RPO glance routes and isolation fades, with bonus upside if Dallas stays in soft zone shells. That’s a WR1/2 floor with WR1 ceiling in one of the week’s fastest, loosest scripts.
