How ’bout that Malik Nabers, everyone? He sure looks every bit matchup-proof, and after his theatrics in the overtime shootout against the Cowboys last week, he’ll have a test against Kansas City’s Trent McDuffie on Sunday Night Football. Indeed, as sample sizes started to round into form last week, so did a bit more of the macro picture of what we might expect from these 32 NFL teams going forward. Teams saw too many quarterbacks injured and sacrificed—Jayden Daniels, Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, and Brock Purdy headline the list of marquee names that are shelved. Rookie tight end phenom Tyler Warren is banged up, as is second-year blast-off Tucker Kraft. Bhayshul Tuten might officially be a thing already. R.J. Harvey and Kaleb Johnson? Not so much. Is this the week the cream begins to separate from the crop? As ever, we remain on the agricultural beat in that regard, separating out stashes, dart throws, breakouts, and, probably most importantly, running back sleepers.
The refrain remains the same—All I want is for you to be better than your friends. You’re going to be surrounded by them on Sunday, probably. How sweet would it be if you could be sure you’ve checked every box possible that might guarantee you a resounding victory this week? Some kick-your-feet-up insights? I’ve got some. And I know my audience. The smoke-break audience. The quick-scan-of-the-phone-on-the-way-to-the-fridge audience. The I-ain’t-reading-all-that-but-good-luck folk. I’m a man of the people.
And so: the Five Lists of Five series. Think of these as byte-sized, two-minutes-to-yourself lists to scan during your weekend as you foam at the mouth for any competitive fantasy edge. As much relevant analysis as I can fit into, like, ~250 words per player.
Below: Top five breakout running backs for Week 3. These are guys that FantasyPros ECR has ranked in the mid-to-late RB2-or-worse range whose matchups I think warrant fringe RB1 consideration. Sometimes they’ll indeed be running backs who aren’t just breaking out of the prison of their rankings, but are indeed breaking onto the scene. But not always. There are only so many names that have scaleable and sustainable relevance in fantasy football!
Here are the other offerings from my 2025 Fantasy Football Five Lists of Five: Week 3 edition:
- Top five must-start players for Week 3 of 2025 fantasy football
- Top five WR/CB matchups to target for Week 3 fantasy football
- Top five breakout wide receivers for 2025 fantasy football Week 3
- Top five players to stash for Week 3 of 2025 fantasy football
Follow my handle @dansby_edits for all of my fantasy football content—as well as plenty of NFL and College Football betting goodies—all season long.
Top five breakout RBs to target for Week 3 of 2025 fantasy football
Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks (vs. Saints)
Obviously, we all drafted KWIII as a RB1. He doesn’t seem to belong on a breakout list. But!
The role split has masked Walker’s explosion signal, which is exactly why he’s on breakout watch. Through two weeks, Zach Charbonnet has played 56% of snaps to Walker’s 37%, and Charbonnet has seen both of Seattle’s goal-line carries. But Week 2 exposed who’s actually tilting the field: Walker ripped 105 rushing yards on 13 carries and added a reception for 13 yards, while Charbonnet slogged to 10 yards on 15 carries. That’s a 8.1 YPC vs 0.7 YPC contrast — raw, undeniable juice.
PFF’s context flags Seattle–New Orleans as a backfield get-right spot. The Saints just allowed 22.7 PPR to Christian McCaffrey in Week 2 and 22.9 combined to James Conner and Trey Benson in Week 1. Seattle’s next three (vs NO, at ARI, vs TB) keep the runway favorable if usage nudges even slightly toward the hot hand.
The story here is efficiency pressure. Even with Charbonnet owning the early GL slice, Walker’s per-touch impact forces sequencing changes if the Seahawks want to sustain drives. And this opponent’s tendencies permit it: New Orleans’ front has already bled chunk outcomes to primary RBs; they’ve struggled to finish runs at the second level and gave up chain-moving success to both styles (gap downhill and zone crease hitters) in the first two weeks (game-log synthesis). With Seattle’s offense toggling tempo and play-action, Walker’s explosives become drive starters and drive finishers.
Walker projects 14–18 carries, 2–3 targets, 95–115 total yards, and high-leverage TD odds if red-zone sequencing tilts his way even once. Even if Charbonnet keeps a slice of GL work, the Saints’ recent allowance of top-end RB production plus Walker’s Week-2 explosion creates a live breakout band.
Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders (at Commanders)
Jeanty was drafted as a top-five RB in many leagues but sits RB28 in fantasy points per game through two weeks. The volatility comes from a snap-rate whiplash: 80%+ snaps in Week 1, followed by a major snap/usage decline in Week 2 despite little competition behind him. Why are we seeing Zamir White so much, then, on passing downs?
My recommendation is a firm hold, because the depth chart still points to Jeanty reclaiming the early-down majority and short-yardage work as usage stabilizes. The near-term schedule is favorable for carry accumulation: at WAS, vs CHI, at IND — three straight spots where neutral scripts can sustain RB volume if Las Vegas isn’t forced one-dimensional.
Week 3 context adds structure to the bet. Raiders at Commanders sits WAS –3.5, total 44.0, a median scoring environment that supports 18–22 team rushing attempts if game flow cooperates. Jeanty’s path to a breakout box score is built on reclaiming early-down sequences, owning inside-the-5 plunges, and adding a modest pass-game surface in two-minute/late-down spots. That usage tree is exactly what spiked his draft cost and why PFF flags the Week-2 dip as volatility, not a talent concern.
What we need to see is a triangulation of what we’ve already seen, a clear and quantifiable confluence: snap share reverting toward Week-1 levels; goal-to-go carries consolidating; drive count sufficient to deliver two or more red-zone possessions. If those hit, Jeanty’s touchdown probability jumps meaningfully. The macro “fantasy-friendly” lens emphasizes success-rate/EPA variables; even in a middle-total game like this, a run-first corrective plan for Las Vegas is viable when drives stay on schedule (PFF).
Verdict: give Jeanty the upside start. Range: 16–22 carries, 3–4 targets, 95–120 total yards, and a strong chance to score if the Week-1 snap shape returns. With vs CHI and at IND on deck, a Washington consolidation is the right week to catch the first big 2025 line in your lineups.
Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland Browns (vs. Packers)
Judkins’ NFL debut in Week 2 delivered immediate signal. Despite joining late, he led Cleveland in carries (10), touches (13), and yards (71) while playing 25% of snaps. Jerome Ford still owns the most playing time, but the backfield’s efficiency gap is meaningful: the staff needs explosive finishers on the field, and Judkins provided them on limited usage right away. Fair to expect massive uptick in opportunity in Week 3 as he climbs the install curve.
The matchup dings surface-level projection — Green Bay’s defense ranks as one of the week’s tougher groups — but script can still create volume. Cleveland’s offense has leaned into high play totals with conservative sequencing; when they sustain drives, inside-the-10 touches consolidate quickly. The Browns’ upcoming stretch (vs GB, at DET, vs MIN, at PIT, vs MIA) places a premium on contact balance and yards after contact to avoid long-down pass funnels. That’s Judkins’ calling card, and the Week-2 tape fit the scouting: decisive first step, square pads into contact, and finish through glancing blows.
PFF notes suspension uncertainty in season-long contexts, but nothing about Week 3 usage throttling; the recommendation is essentially patience for the full breakout, with a bench lean only if you’re deep and loaded. Here, the breakout case leans on role ramp + red-zone leverage in an offense starving for explosives. Forecast: 12–16 carries, 3–4 targets, 80–100 total yards, and live TD equity if the Browns generate two or more green-zone trips. One more week of snap growth (into the low-30s percent) is all it takes for Judkins to stamp a box-score spike.
Cam Skattebo, New York Giants (vs. Chiefs)
The fast-riser on this list, and a totally welcome one at that. After a five-touch, 11.8% snap debut in Week 1, Skattebo’s usage spiked to 52.2% snaps and 13 touches for 59 yards and a TD in Week 2, while Tyrone Tracy’s snaps dropped by 30+ percentage points. That’s immediate confirmation of what the scouting said: pro-ready contact balance, plus soft hands for designed checkdowns. PFF frames him as the Giants’ new lead back with an early-down edge and growing late-down involvement.
Now add opponent context from the fantasy-friendly report: Kansas City carries a top-five blitz rate, their defense has been volatile, and the Giants’ defense is allowing the fourth-highest success rate and EPA/play on the other side — which means Chiefs–Giants projects for inflated play volume. New York has also allowed the second-most explosive runs (12) and 79.5 offensive plays per game to opponents, the second-most — all of which nudges the game into a snaps-rich environment where Skattebo’s touch band can stretch.
Skattebo’s breakout recipe is straightforward: early-down volume + catch surface against pressure. If Kansas City overheats the rush, the hot/read dump-offs land in Skattebo’s lap; if they sit back, New York rides him through neutral scripts. Projection: 15–18 carries, 3–5 targets, 85–110 total yards, and live TD odds given his quick ascension into goal-line relevance last week. With vs KC, vs LAC, at NO ahead, this is the inflection point where usage hardens.
Trey Benson, Arizona Cardinals (at Vikings)
Benson profiles as the change-of-pace hammer with real breakout juice in Week 3. The PFF RB report pegs Arizona’s backfield as productive out of the gate: 22.9 PPR combined for James Conner + Trey Benson vs. NO (Week 1), then another double-digit RB finish for the room in Week 2 — evidence that the run game is translating to fantasy even before Benson’s usage grows. The usage split is clear, but the path is cleaner than it looks: Conner owns traditional goal-to-go work, while Benson has been deployed on early-down spell series, scripted perimeter toss/zone looks, and curveball red-zone calls when defenses overreact to Conner’s downhill tracks (backfield sequencing notes).
The opponent fit matters. PFF’s fantasy-friendly defense report frames Minnesota as a blitz-based defense (Flores) that wants to dictate with pressure; when they don’t, the game invites balance and yields explosive plays at a higher clip. That style creates two specific lanes for Benson: light/tilted boxes behind post-snap movement that open toss/edge lanes, and second-level angles when interior gaps are created by pressure games. Arizona’s opening two weeks already showed the scheme can produce RB explosives against varied fronts (PFF RB report), and Benson’s role is built to cash those crease-and-go chances.
Projection needs numbers and a plan: expect 10–14 carries and 2–3 targets (RB2 share), translating to 70–95 total yards with live TD probability on a single perimeter crease or a red-zone curveball call. If Minnesota pushes tempo and the Cardinals answer with sustained possessions (the fantasy-friendly report flags this as a wide-range game that can expand volume on both sides), Benson’s touch band expands to 12–16, which historically maps to double-digit PPR for Arizona’s RB2 usage. Bottom line: the defensive structure, the backfield’s proven weekly production, and Benson’s explosiveness converge here.
