For WNBA fans, these are the best words in sports: Game 3. Three of the four first-round series in the WNBA playoffs will go to a decisive Game 3, with only the Minnesota Lynx securing their ticket in the semifinals.
In the series with the biggest upset potential, the second-seeded Las Vegas Aces will seek to hold off the seventh-seeded Seattle Storm after the Storm broke their 17-game winning streak by claiming Game 2. The decider will tip off at 9:30 p.m. in Las Vegas.
The Aces are eight-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-360 Moneyline), with the total set at 159 points. The Storm are +285 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the clash and offer a prediction.
Storm at Aces prediction, pick
After a 102-77 throttling in Game 1, Seattle looked dead in the water, and it seemed like Las Vegas was expectedly going to roll its way to a sweep in Game 2. But the Storm came out firing, holding pace with the Aces en route to a one-point deficit at halftime. Las Vegas opened the second half strong, building a 14-point lead with two minutes, five seconds left in the third quarter, and its coronation looked imminent. Even with four minutes left, the Aces led by nine. Then, Skylar Diggins hit a triple from the right wing and Erica Wheeler drained from the left corner, and the charge was on. Second overall pick Dominique Malonga gave Seattle the lead with an and-one, and Diggins’ midrange jumper proved to be the dagger as Climate Pledge Arena went wild.
Still, the Storm had to play a nearly perfect game to emerge victorious. They nailed 50% of their three-pointers and won both the turnover and rebounding battles. Las Vegas didn’t play particularly well, shooting just 20-for-29 (69.0%) from the free-throw line; if the Aces had converted at their regular-season accuracy (82.4%) and nothing else had changed, they would’ve won the game by a single point. It was a relatively quiet game for three-time MVP A’ja Wilson by her ridiculous standards: though she recorded 21 points and 13 rebounds, she averaged 26 and 12 over the season-ending 16-game winning streak. Chelsea Gray managed just seven points, and Jackie Young made only one of her six triples after draining at a 42.0% clip across the winning streak. Las Vegas is a well-oiled machine, and its most frequent lineup of Wilson, Gray, Young, NaLyssa Smith, and Jewell Loyd blitzed opponents by 18.3 points per 100 possessions.
The X-factor in Seattle’s charge was Malonga: not only did she record 11 points, 10 boards, and two blocks in just 23 minutes, the defensive attention she attracted freed up Wheeler and Diggins for open shots. The 19-year-old became a rotation regular after the All-Star break and averaged 11.4 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 2.0 steals/blocks in 20.3 minutes per game thereafter, and the Storm are reportedly considering inserting her into the starting lineup alongside Diggins, Gabby Williams, Nneka Ogwumike, and Brittney Sykes. That unit has had a plus-9.9 net rating in 48 minutes this season, 8.5 points per 100 possessions better than the current unit with Ezi Magbegor in place of Malonga.
The key for Seattle will come in the paint, as the Aces allowed league-average shooting percentages in the restricted area and the non-restricted paint across their winning streak while being somewhat more stifling from the midrange and the league’s best from beyond the arc. Across that same span, the Storm were somewhat more susceptible to jump-shooters, conceding the fifth-highest conversion rate from the midrange and the sixth-highest percentage from beyond the arc. Seattle also struggled on the boards and got into frequent foul trouble in the final stretch of the regular season, but it did force a league-high 16.0 turnovers per game. Las Vegas’ key to victory will be Young, who will need to shoot lights-out while limiting her turnovers.
The Storm putting Malonga into the starting lineup would help with the rebounding issue and give Seattle some interior scoring punch. That’ll make a difference tonight, but not enough of one; I’ll take the Storm to cover the spread but the Aces to move on.
