Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
The Bills are growing favorites at home on Thursday Night Football, as the preseason opener was Buffalo -8.5, and has moved all the way out to -12.5 as of Thursday morning. I have some interest in betting the Bills to put up a lot of points in this game, as the Miami defense has been lifeless, giving up 33 points to both the Colts and Patriots through two games.
Because of the blowout factor here, I’m looking to Buffalo’s backup running back to go over his very low rushing total. In the Bills’ blowout of the Jets last week, Davis factored in late and saw nine carries. He only managed to turn those carries into 24 rushing yards, but the volume was encouraging.
In Week 1’s blowout loss to Indy, the Colts went away from a dominant Jonathan Taylor in the second half, and allowed DJ Giddens to rack up 12 rushing attempts, which he turned into 41 yards. Even in a close game against the Patriots, Antonio Gibson mixed in behind Rhamondre Stevenson to gain 27 rushing yards on just five attempts (and TreVeyon Henderson also carried three times for 10 yards). When the Bills start to run away with this one, I expect some work for Davis. Anything even close to nine carries should get him over his rushing props.
I discussed this one on Wednesday’s episode of DKN Daily Bets if you prefer to checkout a full breakdown in audio form. I gave the play out at 21.5 yards and added it to my NFL Week 3 Best Bets Cheat Sheet. It’s ticking up a bit on game day, but I am fine playing Davis at anything 24.5 yards or better. It’s a great spot for him to succeed as long as Miami is not within one possession late in the game.
NFL Pick: Ray Davis OVER 21.5 Rushing Yards (-114) 1-unit
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