NFL Week 3 is upon us — you can find all my NFL Week 3 best bets below. The article will be constantly updated throughout the week as I add picks.
Jordan Mason OVER 76.5 Rushing Yards (-112) 2-units: Mason is in an incredibly strong spot on Sunday to see a significant workload. Already a big part of Minnesota’s game plan, we saw Mason go for 68 yards on 15 carries in Week 1 against the Bears. Week 2 the game script didn’t set up well trailing the entire game against the Falcons, but he still saw nine carries. Now, not only will the Vikings be playing with backup quarterback Carson Wentz under center, but Aaron Jones has been ruled out due to injury. Against a Cincinnati defense that gave up 139 rushing yards to the Jaguars last week, Mason will get all the backfield work, and the plan could be to go rather heavy on the ground game with Wentz slotting in as the starter. Mason has proven he can handle feature running back work loads — just look back to what he did to start last season in San Francisco when Christian McCaffrey was injured. Through the first five games of the season, Mason averaged 107.2 rushing yards per game, and went for 77-plus in each of them. And then we have this from Vikings’ head coach Kevin O’Connell: “I’m not sure we could have more confidence in Jordan as a potential bell-cow kind of back.” The workload is going to be there. Mason just has to make yards out of it at home against a bad Cincy defense.
DK Metcalf OVER 58.5 Receiving Yards (-112) 1-unit: Metcalf was helf in check last week, bringing in just 3-of-6 targets for 20 yards, although he did score a touchdown against his former team. But going back to Week 1, Metcalf was a huge part of the game plan, ripping off 83 yards on seven targets against the Jets. Now Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers will be up against a soft Patriots secondary, which has been allowing a lot of success to top pass catchers. In Week 1, the WR1 for the Raiders went for 8-97-0 in Jakobi Meyers — and that was with Brock Bowers leading the way at over 100 yards and another 54 yards and a touchdown from Tre Tucker. In Week 2, Tyreek Hill finished with a 109 yards, and WR2 Jaylen Waddle also went over this number with 68 yards. Look for Metcalf to haul in a couple deep balls in this game and go for 60-plus yards.
SGP – Falcons ML/Bijan Robinson 60+ Rushing Yards (-125) 1-unit: The Falcons are growing road favorites in this one, and justifiably so. Despite coming back to cover in Arizona, the Panthers have been lifeless for seven of eight quarters this season. Now down a majority of the starting offensive line, the Panthers will have to face what has been the NFL’s top defense so far in the Atlanta Falcons. I expect Atlanta’s pass rush to have a big hand in winning this NFC South matchup. On the other side of the ball, Bijan Robinson has a chance to run wild in this game. Tampa Bay’s elite run defense limited Robinson on the ground in Week 1, although he still managed 100 receiving yards. But Bijan bounced back with an impressive 143 rushing yards on SNF in Minnesota. That marked the ninth time in his last 11 games that Robinson has rushed for at least 86 yards, dating back to the middle of last season. I think Bijan is a solid bet to go over his standard rushing prop of 81.5 yards, but the yards correlate well with Atlanta winning the game, and if this winds up a blowout, I don’t want to see a late benching cost us a win. Going back through the start of the 2024 season, Bijan has rushed for 60 or more yards in 15-of-19 games, including totals of 95 and 170 last season against Carolina — which allowed 200 rushing yards in Week 1, and ranked dead last in the NFL in 2024, allowing nearly 180 per game.
Commanders -2.5 (-120) 1-unit: Even with Jayden Daniels ruled out for Washington, this is now just too much of a discount for me on Marcus Mariota. The number on this game opened 7.5, and has now moved five points through a bunch of key numbers. I have no issue betting on a backup quarterback in Mariota, who should manage just find against Las Vegas. Geno Smith put up some passing numbers in Week 1 against the Patriots, but that’s looking like a very shaky secondary. Smith and the Raiders looked awful in their home opener on Monday night, and now have to go back out east on a short week to face a solid defense. Washington has also been off since TNF in Green Bay, so there’s a huge rest/prep advantage on the Commanders’ side.
49ers ML (-125) 1.5-units: Did I mention I have no issue betting on backup quarterbacks? I’ve bet on San Francisco every week this season, and I’m back for more here. The numbers on this team have just been too short, and I’m not convinced the move from Brock Purdy to Mac Jones means much right now. Arizona finished very soft against a poor Carolina team last week, and I expect the Niners to be a physical mismatch. The Cardinals won both games in this matchup last season when the Niners were decimated with injuries. I expect some revenge this time around.
Javonte Williams OVER 65.5 Rushing Yards (-112) 1-unit: There were a lot of unknowns when it came to the Dallas backfield entering the season, but Williams has stepped up as the featured back. He’s posted lines of 15-54-2 and 18-97-1 on the ground through the first two games, and now gets a matchup against a Chicago defense that’s been shredded on the ground. The Bears rank 27th in the NFL in the early going, giving up just under 150 a game on the ground. I expect the Cowboys to be successful with a balanced offense in this game, which means Williams breaking off a couple big ones and seeing another 15-plus carries.
Lions vs. Ravens 2-units: I have a confident play on Monday Night Football that I gave out on Monday’s episode of DKN Daily Bets, which you can go to the podcast to find.
Lions vs. Ravens/Chiefs vs. Giants 1-unit: Another one on Monday’s episode of DKN Daily Bets that you can find by listening to the podcast.
Ray Davis OVER 21.5 Rushing Yards (-114) 1-unit (Thursday): I discussed this one on Wednesday’s episode of DKN Daily Bets if you prefer to checkout a full breakdown in audio form. The Bills are growing favorites at home on Thursday Night Football, as the preseason opener was Buffalo -8.5, and has moved all the way out to -12.5. I have some interest in betting the Bills to put up a lot of points in this game, as the Miami defense has been lifeless, giving up 33 points to both the Colts and Patriots through two games. Because of the blowout factor here, I’m looking to Buffalo’s backup running back to go over his very low rushing total. In the Bills’ blowout of the Jets last week, Davis factored in late and saw nine carries. He only managed to turn those carries into 24 rushing yards, but that would get us over the total here. In Week 1’s blowout loss to Indy, the Colts went away from a dominant Jonathan Taylor in the second half, and allowed DJ Giddens to gain 41 yards on 12 rushing attempts. Even in a close game against the Patriots, Antonio Gibson mixed in behind Rhamondre Stevenson to gain 27 rushing yards on just five attempts (and TreVeyon Henderson also carried three times for 10 yards). When the Bills start to run away with this one, I expect some work for Davis. Anything even close to nine carries should get him over this number.
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