On the opening day of the WNBA playoffs, we nearly had chalk across the board. The home teams won three of four games. But the Phoenix Mercury and New York Liberty game, our matchup between the fourth and fifth seeds, provided the drama. With the two teams tied late into the fourth quarter, the Mercury gave the ball to their MVP with a chance to win the game. But Alyssa Thomas could not deliver.
Thomas’ missed layup led to overtime, where the New York Liberty prevailed to steal home court advantage. Now the defending champions have their shot to win the series at home.
The Liberty are 2.5-point favorites and hold -148 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mercury, as road underdogs, are +124 on the moneyline. The total is set at 159 points. Let’s take a look at the best bets and predictions for this Mercury–Liberty matchup.
Mercury vs. Liberty prediction, pick
Sometimes, the game is as simple as who makes shots and who doesn’t. Two players practically defined Game 1. Natasha Cloud, the Liberty’s defense-first two guard, went off for 23 points on 9-of-12 shooting. That would have tied her highest scoring game across 41 regular-season contests. Meanwhile, Phoenix All-Star Satou Sabally made only 2-of-17 shots. That would have been her worst shooting night of the regular season.
This isn’t to say it was random. Sabally had to contend with Jonquel Jones, one of the best defenders in the WNBA, while Cloud has been on a solid shooting run to close the year. But decide the game it did.
However, a significant storyline is unfolding. Breanna Stewart went down in the fourth quarter of Game 1 with a knee injury, which looked brutal. However, the tests have come back fine, according to head coach Sandy Brondello. Stewart is considered questionable for Game 2. Her absence could tilt the entire series.
I have my doubts about the Mercury as a potential contender. But, with Stewart on the wrong side of questionable and banged up if she does play, that gives them a meaningful edge to extend this series.
