The WNBA’s first 44-game regular season is set to come to an end tonight. Besides the eight playoff participants, not much has been determined — only that the Minnesota Lynx will have home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, and the Phoenix Mercury will host the New York Liberty in the first round.
The Liberty will start their playoff journey on Sunday in Phoenix, but for now, they’ll have a final regular-season matchup against the Chicago Sky. Chicago might have already played its last game with Angel Reese; she is questionable tonight and is thought to be available on the trade market this summer.
New York is a 13.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook (-1000 Moneyline), with the total set at 156.5 points. The Sky are +650 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the clash and offer a prediction.
Liberty at Sky prediction, pick
Tonight’s game will mark the second time that the Liberty have had a fully healthy and available squad since their third game of the season, with the first being Tuesday’s win over the Washington Mystics in the home finale. New York has been up-and-down all season and needs to develop chemistry in a hurry with a difficult first-round matchup on the horizon. The injuries have clearly taken a toll: since the All-Star break, the Liberty are just 11-11 with the league’s eighth-best net rating. Tuesday’s win wasn’t particularly convincing: New York shot just six-for-21 (28.6%) from beyond the arc and put up just 75 points, their lowest total in a win this season and seventh-lowest overall.
Chicago, meanwhile, is stuck in a rebuild and will tie for the worst record in the WNBA if it loses and the Dallas Wings beat the Mercury. That’d be a huge disappointment for a team that entered the season with a promising young duo of bigs — Reese and Kamilla Cardoso — and the future looks fairly bleak for the Sky unless it gets compelling offers for Reese. The team has been without the 23-year-old for much of the season with a back injury and was suspended for half of Chicago’s game on Sunday after criticizing the direction of the team. When she plays, she’s the Sky’s best player, averaging 14.7 points and 12.6 rebounds per game. Chicago is 8.0 points per 100 possessions better with her on the floor.
The last time the two teams met, the Sky actually won, posting a 91-85 victory at Barclays Center on August 21. However, the Liberty were without their best player, Breanna Stewart, in that clash, as it came near the end of a monthlong absence with a bone bruise in her knee. Despite playing just 31 games, she should be a strong contender for All-WNBA and All-Defensive consideration. Since she returned to the lineup prior to New York’s win over the Connecticut Sun on August 25, she’s averaged 17.0 points and 6.7 boards per game despite being on a minutes restriction for a few games. She continues to be an elite finisher — of the 45 players who have attempted three or more field goal attempts per game within five feet, her 66.2% accuracy ranks 12th — and a strong defender, ranking 19th in defensive win shares. Chicago has allowed opponents to hit 71.1% of their shots within five feet since Reese’s latest injury.
The key for the Sky will be their midrange and perimeter shooting. In the six games since Stewart’s return, the Liberty have allowed the third-fewest made field goals within five feet, as well as the second-lowest percentage from five-to-nine feet. They have, however, been more exploitable between 10 and 19 feet from the basket and have had a roughly-average three-point defense. Since Chicago’s last game with Reese, it’s shot the fourth-worst percentage from 10-to-14 feet and the best percentage from 15-to-19 feet, but it’s been exceptionally poor from beyond the arc. Rachel Banham is just two-for-15 (13.3%) from deep since Reese’s latest injury.
With Ariel Atkins and possibly Reese out, I don’t see a pathway for the Sky to make this game competitive. They’ve lost by 20, 14, and 31 points in their last three games, the latter two without Atkins. Give me the New York to cover the spread.
