The Washington Nationals are in Miami, taking on the Marlins to start the week in an NL East series. The Nats have won the first two games of the four-game series and will look to make in three in a row despite a tougher matchup on Wednesday night. Let’s dive into the matchup and see what to expect from the Nationals-Marlins matchup this Wednesday night, with the first pitch scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET.
The Nationals improved to 60-84 with the two wins to start the week, while the Marlins are down to 66-79. Both teams are well out of the race for the postseason but do have some fun young players, especially at the plate, to watch and enjoy over the last few weeks of the regular season. Miami has lost seven of its last eight games and was swept by the Nationals in D.C. last week. The Nationals have won seven of eight, and their young offense has been very productive over the last few weeks.
The Marlins are -157 home favorites in this matchup, with the run total at 8.5. Let’s preview this Wednesday night matchup with the help of some odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Nationals vs. Marlins prediction, preview
The trends for this game are almost all good for the Nationals and almost all bad for the Marlins. The one huge counterpoint to that direction is the starting pitching matchup. The Marlins are giving the ball to Eury Perez, who has been solid when available this season, while the Nationals are giving the ball to Jake Irvin, who has been extremely hittable.
Perez is 6-5 in his 16 starts this season with a 4.66 ERA and 4.36 FIP. He has 72 strikeouts in 75 1/3 innings. Perez’s numbers were significantly better prior to his last two starts, which were both disastrous. He only lasted 2/3 of an inning against the Mets, giving up five runs on three hits, two walks, and two home runs and getting pulled after just 39 pitches.
He did last longer in his most recent outing last week against the Nationals, but Washington knocked him around for seven runs in four innings since his velocity was noticeably down. Perez had only two strikeouts and allowed 11 hard-hit balls, with two of those leaving the yard.
Before his last two rough outings, Perez looked to be back on track to where he was in 2023, when he posted a 3.15 ERA and 108 strikeouts in 91 1/3 innings before missing 2024 after Tommy John surgery. His last two starts look like he may have hit a wall in that recovery after logging 75 1/3 innings so far this season. Perez will look to bounce back in the rematch on Wednesday night, but there has to be some concern that something bigger could be wrong.
He’ll be opposed by Jake Irvin, who is 8-11 with a 5.71 ERA, 5.74 FIP and a 47.5% hard-hit rate against him this season. He has given up a 12.0% barrel rate and 33 homers in his 29 starts this year, including six in his last four starts.
Perez didn’t face the Marlins last week, but he did take a loss in his start vs. the Cubs. He’s dropped four straight decisions, giving up 20 runs in 17 2/3 innings with a 10.19 ERA and 8.29 FIP. Irvin has been especially crushable by lefties, who have 21 homers and a .382 wOBA against him on the season. He has been even worse on the road than at home, and lefties have a .410 wOBA against him when he’s away from Nationals Park.
If you’re looking for a specific player to lean into against Irving, I highlighted Jakob Marsee as a strong lefty to support in my top home run props of the day.
The last four games between these teams have all been high-scoring. The Nationals finished last week’s sweep with a 10-5 win, while the two games in this series have been 15-7 and 7-5 wins by the Nats.
The Nationals have been scoring plenty of runs over the last couple of weeks with the help of a big surge from Daylen Lile. Lile has a nine-game hitting streak coming into Wednesday’s matchup, and he has gone 16-for-37 (.432) with a double, four triples, two homers, 11 runs scored and seven RBI over that stretch.
The matchup is a classic example of the pitching matchup pointing in the opposite direction of recent trends, but since Perez hasn’t looked right, it seems like a great spot to play the Nationals at +129 on the moneyline. That feels great, right up until you remember that you have to count on Jake Irvin at that point. As you’ll see in my pick and prediction below, I’m doing all I can to back neither pitching situation and instead just pile up power picks.
Nationals vs. Marlins pick, best bet
Best Bet: Total Runs over 8.5 (-115)
With the form of both these starting pitchers, expect plenty of runs in Miami in this contest.
Strong Lean: Over 2.5 Total Home Runs (+115)
Both starting pitchers have been giving up home runs at a high rate, and both lineups have power potential. Getting this prop at plus money feels like great valuea and provides an opportunity to just cheer for dingers no matter who is batting in this matchup.
