Major League Baseball has a big mid-week schedule this Wednesday with games spread throughout the day. Four games start in the afternoon, four in the early evening, and seven more after 7:00 p.m. ET. Let’s dive into the big slate and pinpoint some strong home run props to play. After breaking down the matchups, game environments, odds and current form of the players available, my favorite home run props are from Jakob Marsee, Colson Montgomery and Randy Arozarena.
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and swing for the fences with these home run props—all home run props are long-shot bets. Even the top home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, so home run props are never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators that can point us in the right direction, home run props are always volatile plays.
As a result, home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re uncertain. What makes home run props exciting is that the longer odds yield big returns when they do hit. I typically play home run props individually and in round robins at a small unit size, boosting the ceiling even higher if multiple home run props go green.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props on Wednesday.
Best Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jakob Marsee to record 1+ home runs (+562)
Let’s start our home run props by taking our talents to South Beach, where the Marlins host the Nationals.
Nats’ starter Jake Irvin has had a “talent” for giving up home runs this year, allowing 33 homers in 29 starts, just one behind Zack Littell for the MLB lead. Irvin has a 5.71 ERA and 5.74 FIP overall this year, but a 9.67 ERA and 8.07 FIP over his last six starts. In those six outings, he has allowed nine homers and 30 runs in 27 innings.
Marsee is my top Marlin to target for home run props this Wednesday night since the 24-year-old lefty has shown plenty of pop throughout this season both in the minors and majors. He started the season in Triple-A, where he had 14 homers and a .371 wOBA for the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp before joining the Marlins in early August.
In the majors, Marsee has five homers and a .408 wOBA in 37 games, and he hit his fifth homer on Monday in the first game of the series.
Irvin has served up 21 of his 33 homers to lefties like Marsee this year, and lefties have a .285 batting average and .382 wOBA against him. Marsee has hit well against both lefties and righties, and the 24-year-old has settled into the middle of Miami’s order for the last few weeks.
While he’s still a long shot over +500, I love the value in Marsee’s home run props for Wednesday night in such a great matchup against Irvin.
Colson Montgomery to record 1+ home runs (+380)
Montgomery is another young hitter who is giving his team and fans lots of excitement going forward with a big finish to the season. The 23-year-old is only hitting .230 in his 53 games, but he has shown excellent power potential with 18 home runs.
Eight of those 18 homers have come in his last 15 games, and he has a 17% barrel rate over that span, with an average exit velocity over 91 miles per hour. Ten of his 18 homers have come in his 27 games at home, where he has a .352 wOBA.
On Wednesday, the Rays scratched scheduled starter Ryan Pepiot due to “fatigue” and will go with a bullpen game led by Griffin Jax ($4,000). Jax has had mixed results since coming to the Rays from the Twins at the trade deadline but has pitched clean innings in each of his last two outings.
Marsee’s home run props were a good play because of the matchup, but Montgomery’s are a good play based on his recent form, since we can’t predict exactly who he’ll end up facing out of the Rays’ pen.
Randy Arozarena to record 1+ home runs (+468)
We’ll finish our home run props out West, where the Mariners are holding on to a 1.5-game lead in the AL Wild Card. I highlighted Arozarena in my top MLB DFS plays for the day, and I love his home run props as a good bet, as well.
Arozarena crushed a three-run homer on Tuesday night against the Cardinals off of Matthew Liberatore, the pitcher who was the key piece in the trade that sent Arozarena to the Rays and then ultimately to Seattle.
Arozarena is up to 27 homers on the year along with 27 stolen bases. He has four of those homers in his last 16 games, with a .281 batting average, .388 wOBA and a 51.1% hard hit rate. He has hit 17 of his 27 homers at home, and 18 of them against right-handed pitching.
The Mariners and Arozarena will take on Michael McGreevy in Wednesday’s matchup, who has given up eight homers in his 13 games in the majors this season, including four in his last three starts.
Arozarena has been streaky throughout his career, but he has been very productive since moving to the top of the order for the Mariners and is on a heater coming into Wednesday night, when he still offers very solid value with his home run props.
