The St. Louis Cardinals are on the West Coast, wrapping up a three-game series in Seattle on Wednesday night in one of the late games. The Mariners have won the first two games of the series, 4-2 and 5-3, and they’ll look to close out the sweep at 9:40 p.m. ET.
The Mariners currently hold the third and final AL Wild Card spot with a 77-68 record and are now just one game behind the Astros for the division lead as well. Seattle has won four straight and could be rounding into form just in time for a playoff push. They have a four-game series at home with the Angels over the weekend before going on the road to Kansas City and Houston. They’ll look to finish off this series with the Cardinals on a high note headed into this critical stretch, while St. Louis will try to stay sweepless in Seattle by salvaging a win on Wednesday night. The Cardinals are 72-74 and 4.5 games behind the Mets for the third Wild Card spot. They could climb back into the race with a big finish but have gone 4-5 over their last nine games.
The Mariners are heavy home favorites at -226 on the Moneyline, with the run total for the game at 7.5. Let’s preview this Wednesday night matchup with the help of some odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cardinals at Mariners prediction, preview
The M’s give the ball to Logan Gilbert to close out the series and should feel confident in the 28-year-old righty, who has been very solid for the most part lately despite his 4-6 record on the year. Gilbert has allowed three runs or fewer in five of his last six starts, with the one exception on the road against the Phillies.
In his last home start, Gilbert held the Athletics to just one run on three hits in six innings. At home this year, he has a 2.15 ERA and 2.14 FIP compared to a 5.29 ERA and 4.28 FIP on the road. He has an impressive 13.5 K/9 at home with a 40.2% K%, compared to just a 27.9% K% on the road.
Gilbert will be opposed by Michael McGreevy, who is 6-3 in his 13 games with a 4.68 ERA and 4.01 FIP. The 25-year-old rookie has scuffled in his last few outings though, allowing 15 runs in 22 innings, including four home runs. McGreevy only has a 7.6% barrel rate against him on the season but has allowed a 10.7% barrel rate over those four games.
The Mariners’ offense has been picking things up over the last few games and should be able to get to McGreevy. They have scored 37 runs in their last four games and have plated at least four runs in six of their last seven. At home this year, the Mariners have averaged 4.3 runs per game with a low .225 batting average but 92 home runs, which ranks in the top 10 in the majors in the split.
One hitter who has been heating up that is worth focusing on Wednesday is Mariners outfielder Randy Arozarena. I highlighted how hot he has been in my MLB DFS picks for the slate and also included him in my top home run props. Arozarena has hit .317 in his last 11 games with four doubles, two homers and a .419 wOBA as a result of a 50% hard-hit rate.
Trade Deadline addition Josh Naylor has also been mashing with three homers in his last four games. McGreevy has struggled against lefties, so Naylor is on the strong side of the splits in this matchup as well.
On the Cardinals’ side, Willson Contreras was able to return from his suspension on Tuesday, but Masyn Winn (knee) was scratched last night before being diagnosed with a torn meniscus on Wednesday. He will try to play through the issue and put off surgery until the offseason, and he’s considered day-to-day at this point. Brendan Donovan (groin) and Nolan Arenado (shoulder) are working their way back from injury and could return soon, but they are still on the injured list for this series finale.
Cardinals vs. Mariners pick, best bet
Best Bet: Mariners -1.5 (-105)
Since the Mariners won both of the first two games in this series by multiple runs and have the distinct starting pitching advantage, I think they finish this series off with a big win by multiple runs again on Wednesday night.
Strong Lean: Logan Gilbert over 7.5 strikeouts recorded (+112)
Gilbert had 13 strikeouts in his last home start against the A’s and is averaging 8.0 strikeouts over his 11 home starts this season. Over the last two weeks, the Cardinals rank fifth in the majors in strikeouts at the plate, averaging 9.3 strikeouts per game.
