Jordan Love donned the headset in his first two seasons in the NFL. Once he became a starter, he guided the Green Bay Packers to two nine-win seasons and two playoff berths. Not to diminish the play of Love, but he joined a good Packers team that had three straight 13-win seasons and won eight games prior to him becoming the starter.
Jayden Daniels was the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and joined a Washington Commanders team that won four games and did not have a winning record since 2016. His selection immediately paid dividends, leading the Commanders to a 12-5 record and an appearance in the NFC Championship.
Despite the divergent starting points, both quarterbacks are primed to lead their respective teams to great heights this season. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Packers at +800 odds to win the Super Bowl, the fourth-shortest odds, while the Commanders are at +1800, the sixth-shortest odds.
Both teams have great offenses, but the main differentiator is that the Packers have the edge on defense. Last season, Green Bay was third in EPA per dropback and eighth in EPA per carry. Washington was 15th and 18th. Green Bay had 31 takeaways compared to only 17 for Washington. Oh, and Green Bay added Micah Parsons to a unit that was eighth in sacks last season.
In their Week 1 victory over the New York Giants, Washington only put up 21 points. Jayden Daniels went 19-of-30 for 233 yards and a touchdown. The Commanders did rush 32 times for 220 yards and two touchdowns, though. The Giants aren’t a good team, especially on offense, but the defense is stout with an impressive defensive line.
The Packers were impressive in Week 1 with a 27-13 beatdown of the Detroit Lions. Detroit could only muster 200 yards through the air and 46 yards on the ground. Green Bay only had 188 yards passing and 78 yards rushing, but no turnovers and no sacks while averaging 8.5 yards per pass play. Sure, the game was in Green Bay and the Lions aren’t as good outside their dome, but Detroit is one of the better teams in the NFL.
Both Washington and Green Bay were towards the bottom of the league last season in pass rate, but Washington led the league in plays per game while Green Bay was 27th.
This game has a healthy total of 48.5, so points are expected to be scored, especially with two good quarterbacks.
DraftKings Sportsbook has GB -3 over WAS with the total at 48.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Thursday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (WAS @ GB)
Captain’s Picks
Josh Jacobs ($15,900 CP): Last season, the Commanders defense allowed 4.8 yards per attempt, the third-highest mark in the league. Not much effort was made to address that weakness. Sure, defensive coordinator Joe Whitt could scheme to stymie Jacobs, but then that would leave Jordan Love and all the explosive pass-catching weapons to run free through the secondary. Green Bay was 30th in pass rate last season and Jacobs carried the ball 301 times. Back in 2022 with the Las Vegas Raiders, Jacobs rushed 340 times, so he’s no stranger to being a bell cow. In Week 1, Jacobs was in on 100% of the snaps for running backs (42). Green Bay wants to pound the rock, but especially so in this one to keep Jayden Daniels off the field. Last season, Jacobs finished with at least 20 FPTS eight times.
UTIL Plays
Jayden Daniels ($11,000): Daniels is THE offense for Washington, and I don’t expect the Commanders to get skunked in this one, no matter how good the Packers defense is. While Daniels is adept from the pocket, completing 69% of his passes last season and 63.3% in Week 1, the main allure is his rushing prowess. Last season, he carried the rock 148 times for 891 yards and six touchdowns with a 62.8% success rate. In Week 1, he rushed 11 times for 68 yards with a 72.7% success rate. Last season, Daniels put up at least 20 FPTS 11 times, with two of those showings over 30 FPTS.
Romeo Doubs ($4,000): The Packers do not have a target hog, as Love spreads it around. While my story says that Jacobs will have a big workload, Love is still going to throw some passes. In Week 1, Doubs led the wide receiver group with a 97% snap rate. He was second on the team with four targets and got two red-zone looks.
Terry McLaurin ($9,000): Deebo Samuel led the Commanders in Week 1 with 10 targets while McLaurin finished with only four. Hopefully that increases the ownership for Samuel because I really like McLaurin in this one. Green Bay played zone defense at the fifth-highest rate last season. McLaurin had the fifth-best REC EPA last season against zone defense. I think Green Bay is going to put up points and control the clock, so Washington will likely have to be aggressive through the air in this one.
Fades
Jacory Croskey-Merritt ($7,000): Croskey-Merritt was the darling of the offseason and performed well in Week 1 with 14.2 FPTS. He only had 10 carries and one target, though. He also averaged 8.2 yards per carry. Not only are the Packers stout against the run, but I think there’s a good chance Croskey-Merritt gets game scripted out of this one, which makes Austin Ekeler more appealing at $200 cheaper.
THE OUTCOME
Green Bay is one of the most balanced teams in the NFL. They are healthy and playing at home in primetime. As mentioned in the Jacobs section, I like the run game to be effective in this one.
Final Score: Packers 27, Commanders 24
