This game has been discussed heavily for weeks now, and the bets just won’t stop coming in at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Texas Longhorns travel to Columbus to face the Ohio State Buckeyes, in a rematch of the College Football Playoff last season. No. 1 at No. 3 in the Preseason AP Poll, and the top team in the country, at least at one point in time, catching points in the game.
I wrote this game up a couple weeks back on DK Network, so feel free to check the article out for some deeper analysis. I thought with the price down from Texas +4.5 (opener in February) to Ohio State at a reasonable moneyline price, that was my time to fire. I was wrong. I played the game at Buckeyes -130 ML, and will keep that price as my play below. But money has been absolutely piling in on the road Longhorns, and one of our traders revealed on VSiN that Texas is the largest liability at DKSB.
We’ve reached the point where the game is essentially a pick’em, and the Buckeyes even became a slight underdog at some shops on Thursday. I understand that Texas has a ton of potential this season, but the love that the Longhorns are getting for this game is a little out of control now. Arch Manning has a lot of upside, but Texas lost a bunch of playmakers and four starters on the offensive line. Sure, the Longhorns replace them with strong talent, as you’d imagine, but I still feel the offense should take some time to find its stride.
Going on the road to face the defending champs isn’t exactly the best spot to be in to get the offense clicking. You could say the same about Julian Sayin and the Buckeyes on the other side of the matchup, but home field is a massive edge in this matchup, particularly in Week 1. I believe the Buckeyes have more known commodities across the rest of the roster (outside of QB), particularly at receiver. Given the analysis on these offenses taking time to get going, and both defenses being the best units on the field, I’m still talking myself into adding a potential first half under if I can get the number I want.
But for now, I’ll fade the public in this one, particularly when you can go get yourself a much better price now.
CFB Pick: Ohio State ML (-130) 1.5-units
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