The schedule makers have done a good job of providing us with some elite matchups for Week 1 of the college football season over the years, but they’ve outdone themselves in 2025. Labor Day Weekend will feature three different top-10 matchups across the sport, including No. 1 Texas at No. 3 Ohio State.
There’s no shortage of storylines in this one. The Buckeyes defeated the Longhorns in dramatic fashion in the College Football Playoff last season, and went on to win the National Championship. However, it’s the revenge-seeking Longhorns that open up No. 1 in the first Preseason AP Poll. Despite Ohio State ranking No. 3 overall, these two teams are the +550 co-favorites on DK Sportsbook to win it all this season.
Interestingly enough, it’s No. 3 favored over No. 1 in this one, and bettors have taken notice. Months ago when this game first opened up on the board, the Longhorns were catching 4.5 points. Texas has since taken 52% of the spread bets for 67% of the handle, moving the number to Texas +2.5. The Longhorns also have taken 73% of the handle on the moneyline (all data is accurate as of August 11).
While Texas might be shaping up to be the “sharp” side of this game, I feel the number has moved too far. Much of that has to do with my opinion that the Longhorns are getting way too much hype, and don’t belong No. 1 in the AP Poll. Sure, Arch Manning may or may not be a stud. We’ll find out soon. But he has significantly less to work with around him than last year’s roster. Texas lost its top-three pass-catchers from 2024, and also returns just one starting offensive lineman. Some solid talent comes in to replace those bodies, as you’d expect, but that’s a lot of experience out the door.
While the defense will have a chance to keep the Longhorns in this one, the offense could be in much worse shape than what the public perception is due to Manning. If the offensive line is at all vulnerable, it will show on August 30 playing on the road against a nasty OSU defensive front.
While protecting Manning is my key to this game, I also give the Buckeyes the advantage on offense. While they have talent to replace in the backfield, Julian Sayin is in pretty good shape for a new starting quarterback. He’ll be playing behind an elite offensive line, and returns arguably the best player in the country in Jeremiah Smith, along with Carnell Tate as his top targets.
I expect Ohio State to be more polished out of the gates in 2025, particularly facing the Texas offensive line in a hostile environment. Home field advantage should be crucial in this one, and that’s enough for me to fire on the Buckeyes on the moneyline at a discount.
CFB Pick: Ohio State ML (-130) 1.5-units
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