On Friday night, all 30 teams in Major League Baseball are on the schedule under the lights. It should be a great night of baseball across the country, giving everyone plenty of treat options to consider for home run props on DraftKings Sportsbook. After taking a look at all the matchups, game environments, odds, and current form of the players available, my favorite home run props are from Junior Caminero, Kyle Tucker, and Adolis Garcia.
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and swing for the fences with these home run props—all home run props are long-shot bets. Even the top home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, so home run props are never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators to consider, home run props are always volatile plays.
As a result, home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re uncertain. What makes home run props exciting is the longer odds yield big returns when they do hit. I typically play home run props individually and in round robins at a small unit size, boosting the ceiling even higher if multiple home run props go green.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Friday:
Best HR Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Junior Caminero to record 1+ home runs (+255)
In one of the three early games on the scoreboard, Caminero and the Rays roll into D.C. to start a series against the Nationals. They’ll take on lefty Mitchell Parker, who has gone 0-4 in his last five starts with seven homers allowed and a 57.5% hard-hit rate against.
Caminero is just one homer away from 40, and 11 of his 39 blasts have come in his last 18 games. During that span, he’s hitting .288 with a .479 ISO and .457 wOBA. He has 11 home runs during those 18 games but only eight singles. He’s boom-or-bust for fantasy in general, but his home run props have been regularly hitting.
His 39th homer came in a two-homer game on Monday at the start of the team’s road trip in Cleveland:
Caminero should be in a good spot to deliver on his home run props on Friday agianst Parker, who has allowed 20 homers on the season. Righties have hit 16 of those 20 home runs with a .347 wOBA. In his last five starts, he has a 12.00 ERA and 7.79 FIP and has served up seven dingers, five of which were by righties.
Since breaking on the scene at the Home Run Derby, Caminero has continued to emerge as one of the most exciting young sluggers in baseball, and the 22-year-old has a chance to set all kinds of franchise and MLB records with a big final month.
Kyle Tucker to record 1+ home runs (+360)
I’m not here to tell you that Kyle Tucker is or is not “fixed” and ready to be an elite producer the rest of the season. I am saying that I like his home run props at this price at Coors Field in a very favorable matchup against a hittable German Marquez.
Tucker went through a brutal stretch after the All-Star break, including a 25-game homerless stretch while going just 14-for-86 (.163). He took a few days off just over a week ago, and whether the time off helped or not, he has looked much better in his last few contests.
Tucker has hit safely in six straight games, going 9-for-22 (.409) with two doubles, three homers, and a .569 wOBA. He has a 40% hard-hit rate and 20% barrel rate in those six games, all of which were on the road.
Tucker will be on the road on Friday night in the homer-haven of Coors Field. He’ll also have a great matchup against Marquez, who has been extremely crushable this season both at home and on the road. He has a 5.67 ERA, 4.58 FIP, and 1.64 WHIP, and lefties have hit nine of the 13 homers he has allowed while posting a .392 wOBA against him.
In his career, Tucker has played 10 games at Coors Field and has three home runs, including each of his two most recent games last year with the Astros. He’s also 3-for-7 against Marquez but does not have a homer in their past matchups.
With his recent slump, I definitley get that Tucker isn’t in top form, but his home run props still seem incredibly favorable given the matchup and his power potential.
Adolis Garcia to record 1+ home runs (+370)
I hit with Garcia in my home run props on Wednesday (2-for-3 for those keepings score at home), and I’m ready to go back to the well on Friday night as the Rangers head to Sacramento to take on the Athletics at homer-happy Sutter Health Park.
Garcia has had a down year overall, hitting .234 with a .296 wOBA, but he has hit at least 25 homers in four straight years and is up to 18 this year, so with a late push, he can get near that number once again. He’s always been a streaky producer, and it looks like he’s ready to go on a heater after comign back from a quick stop on the injured list with an ankle issue.
Since returning, Garcia has hit safely in five straight games, going 9-for-20 (.380) with four doubles, two homers, and an average exit velocity of 92.1 miles per hour. His exit velocity and hard-hit rate have been solid most of the year, but he’s been getting even better contact lately.
He hit his 18th homer as part of the Rangers’ 20-run onslaught on Wednesday:
On Friday, Garcia has a good matchup against lefty Jeffrey Springs on Friday night in Sacramento. Springs has been inconsistent this season but has given up a home run in each of his last six starts with a 4.84 FIP. Righties like Garcia have hit 22 of the 25 gopher balls against Springs this season, while posting a .311 wOBA.
Since Garcia can get on power runs, he makes sense to play at this price again on Friday, especially with warm temps and the wind blowing out.
