On Wednesday night, Major League Baseball has 11 games under the lights, providing a great mix of matchups to consider as you search for options to add to your betting card. If you’re in the market for home run props, DraftKings Sportsbook has plenty of great options to consider. After diving into the matchups, environments, odds and current form of the players on the board on Wednesday night, my favorite home run props are from Roman Anthony, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Adolis Garcia.
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and swing for the fences with these home run props — all home run props are long-shot bets. Even the top home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, so home run props are never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators to consider, home run props are always volatile plays.
As a result, home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy but shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re uncertain. What makes home run props exciting is the longer odds yield big returns when they do hit. I typically play home run props individually and in round robins at a small unit size, boosting the ceiling even higher if multiple home run props hit.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Wednesday.
Best HR Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Roman Anthony to record 1+ home runs (+390)
Let’s start the night with the early game in Baltimore, where the Red Sox are looking to take a third straight game from the Birds before the four-game series wraps up Thursday afternoon. They’ve won five of their last six games and are in the top AL Wild Card spot, two games ahead of the Mariners for the third spot and four games behind the Blue Jays in the AL East.
A huge part of their recent surge has been the emergence of their young bats, led by Anthony, who is delivering on his promise as the top prospect in baseball.
Over the last 17 games, Anthony is 21-for-67 (.313) with three doubles, four homers, and an impressive 65.9% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 96.3 miles per hour. That hard-hit rate would lead the majors, and his average exit velocity would be a close second behind only Oneil Cruz’s.
Anthony has 14 hard-hit batted ball events and six barrels in his last seven games, including this homer from Monday’s matchup.
Anthony will likely get his first at-bat against lefty opener Dietrich Enns but then most of his at-bats against bulk reliever Roansy Contreras. Contreras will be making his first MLB appearance this season, but has given up double-digit homers in each of the last three seasons in the majors. In 91 Triple-A innings this year, Contreras had a 4.98 FIP and gave up 13 home runs along with a 35.1% hard-hit rate.
Since he’s facing a lefty, Anthony’s odds in his home run props are a little longer, but he still has plenty of potential to deliver a dinger to close out the series on Wednesday night.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to record 1+ home runs (+500)
I highlighted Corbin Carroll in my top MLB DFS picks for the day, and I also like his home run props at +330. Carroll has a 13-game hitting streak coming into Wednesday night’s matchup and is 17-for-51 (.333) over that span, but he only has one home run during that stretch. While I like him as a play for home run props, I like his teammate Gurriel a little bit more since he has been hitting for more power and comes at much longer odds.
Gurriel has not had nearly as good an average as Carroll but has swatted seven homers in his last 20 games, including his 19th of the season, which he hit on Monday.
Gurriel has hit 14 of his 19 homers against righties, and he has a 12.9% barrel rate over his last 20 games, compared to a 7.5% barrel rate on the season.
He’ll be in a better matchup than it initially may appear since Quinn Priester’s breakout season is slowing down a little bit over the last month. In his last five starts, he has given up six homers and has a 6.27 FIP. On the season, Priester has allowed 17 homers in 24 starts. Righties like Gurriel have smashed 11 of those 17 homers with a .320 wOBA.
The Dbacks dropped the first two games of the series, but they’ll look to take Game 3 of the four-game set against Priester on Wednesday night. Gurriel brings great value at +500 with his home run props on Wednesday.
Adolis Garcia to record 1+ home runs (+400)
The Rangers’ rotation has dealt with all kinds of injuries over the last few weeks, but they have won four of their last five and are currently .500 at 67-67 on the year as they try to hang in the AL Wild Card race.
Garcia had a double and a run scored on Tuesday, and he has looked solid since returning from a quick 10-day stay on the injured list with a mild left ankle sprain.
In his four games since returning, he is 5-for-14 (.357) with two doubles, a 50% hard-hit rate and his 17th homer of the season:
Garcia has three homers in his last 17 games, dating back to before the injury. He has hit 13 of his 17 homers against righties and has a .248 average and .313 wOBA against righties at home at Globe Life Field this season.
On Wednesday night, Garcia will face Angels’ right Jack Kochanowicz, who has served up 18 homers in his 22 starts this year. While lefties have done most of that damage, Garcia has hit him well in the past, going 3-for-9 with a pair of home runs in their past meetings.
The Rangers will be going for a series win on Wednesday night, and I think they’ll be able to rough up Kochanowicz, with Garcia having a good chance of going yard as he heats up after coming off the injured list.
