Week 1 of the college football season is loaded with tremendous primetime matchups, and Auburn at Baylor on Friday night of August 29 is certainly among them. The Tigers are looked at as a team expected to make a jump in the SEC, and Baylor is among one of many contenders in a wild Big 12. Phil Steele even pointed out on DKN Daily Bets that Baylor is a team he’s high on this season, and projects to win the conference.
The Bears went 8-4 last season, and ripped off six straight wins (two as an underdog) to end the regular season, before running into LSU in their bowl game. Baylor returns 18 starters from last year’s team, including virtually the entire offense that averaged nearly 35 points per game. Sawyer Robertson is back at quarterback after throwing for 28 touchdowns to just eight interceptions, along with over 3,000 yards. He returns with his top two wide receivers, top two running backs, and four returning starters to the offensive line. There’s no reason to believe the Bears won’t boast an elite offense once again in 2025.
The defense was the issue for the Bears, although you could argue it improved late in the season. Eight starters are back on defense if we include transfers, and Baylor looks to be particularly strong in the front seven. I’m expecting a solid pass rush from Baylor, and a rowdy Friday night home crowd to make it more difficult on Auburn.
I don’t have too much negative to say about Auburn as a whole. Hugh Freeze enters year three with the program, and should have a solid SEC defense. While the veteran offensive line appears poised to protect the quarterback, I don’t trust the the guys that’ll be throwing the ball for the Tigers.
Jackson Arnold transfers in after struggling at Oklahoma last season. The struggles made sense given the lack of talent at the wide receiver position, which clearly improves for Arnold this season at Auburn. That said, all reports indicate that Arnold hasn’t exactly taken the bull by the horns when it comes to securing QB1 status. Steele hinted that he’s been told Auburn is struggling to instill confidence in the transfer QB, which he feels is a concern. Freeze even mentioned in a press conference that there’s a chance we could see two or three quarterbacks play for Auburn in this game. That’s a situation I want no part of.
While Auburn is talented across the field, Baylor has the far more explosive offense. I see these teams as pretty even overall, so if I’m getting a QB advantage in a Friday night home game, I feel Baylor is incorrectly priced as the underdog in this one. I’ll back the Bears with the points.
CFB Pick: Baylor +2.5 (-112) 2-units
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