With just under three weeks left before the WNBA playoffs begin on September 14, only the Minnesota Lynx and Las Vegas Aces have clinched playoff spots. Las Vegas secured its spot with a 79-74 win over the Chicago Sky on Monday, extending a remarkable 11-game winning streak. It’ll have a chance to push it to 12 with a 7:30 p.m. ET road battle against the Atlanta Dream.
Three-time MVP A’ja Wilson has been the catalyst behind the Aces’ miraculous run. Across that span, she’s re-asserted herself as the league’s best player, averaging 26.2 points, 12.7 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.8 blocks per game on 49-41-89 shooting splits.
Las Vegas is a 3.5-point underdog at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set for 163. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bet centered around Wilson.
Best A’ja Wilson Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
A’ja Wilson O23.5 Points (-125)
If Wilson doesn’t score at least 24 points, the Aces are going to have a tough time winning, given how much their star has carried them as of late, and as long as the score is close, she’ll be in the game. The on-off splits are ridiculous: with her on the court, Las Vegas has outscored its opponents by 9.3 points per 100 possessions, and it’s been blitzed by 17.6 points per 100 possessions without her. During the winning streak, she’s scored at least 24 points in seven of the 11 games.
The Dream won’t make that easy; they’ve had easily the WNBA’s best defense since the All-Star break, conceding just 98.4 points per 100 possessions across that span and holding opponents to the second-lowest shooting percentage in the restricted area. Allisha Gray, Brionna Jones, and Rhyne Howard all rank within the league’s top 12 in defensive win shares despite Howard missing nearly a month with a knee injury. Still, Wilson is less a finisher and more of a floater-range ace, averaging 3.5 more shot attempts per game from the non-restricted paint than any other player and connecting at the ninth-highest clip among the 20 players who have attempted at least three such tries per contest. Atlanta has conceded the fifth-highest accuracy from the non-restricted paint since the All-Star break.
A’ja Wilson U11.5 Rebounds (-130)
Wilson shouldn’t be expected to have her typical impact on the boards, though. Though she’s pulled down 12 or more boards in seven of her last nine contests, the Dream have dominated the glass this season. Since the All-Star break, they’ve led the league in defensive rebounding percentage and total rebounding percentage, and unsurprisingly have allowed the fewest boards overall. Four of the five players in their starting lineup are over six feet tall, and six-foot-nine Brittney Griner plays significant minutes off the bench. Wilson has grabbed exactly 12 boards in both of the teams’ matchups this season, but Howard was injured for the first contest and she played her second highest minute total of the season in the second.
