As the WNBA playoff race comes down to the wire, two distinct groups are forming. 1.5 games currently separate seeds 2–5. Ditto for seeds 6–9. The Phoenix Mercury sit in the middle of the former group, while the Sparks are at the back of the latter. Calling this game big would be an understatement.
The Storm are four-point favorites on the road and hold -185 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 166.5 points. Let’s look at the best bets and predictions for this Fever–Storm contest..
Mercury vs. Sparks prediction, pick
This Mercury team is figuring it out on the fly. Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally were two huge star additions in the offseason. They’ve had up-and-down results while dealing with injuries, but the players have performed admirably, and head coach Nate Tibbetts is holding them together. Their recent infatuation with small-ball lineups has produced some fun results — most notably, it’s taking Alyssa Thomas to a new gear.
In August, Thomas recorded five triple-doubles in 10 games. That’s more triple-doubles in a single month than any other player has recorded in their entire WNBA career. Thomas did in three weeks what no player has ever accomplished. Averaging 15 points, 10 rebounds, and nine assists for an entire month is unheard of. Thomas is on a tear that cannot be stopped.
The Sparks will have their work cut out for them. At 17–18, they’re tied with the Valkyries and the Fever (the 7th and 8th seeds, respectively) in the loss column. With a demanding schedule down the stretch, it’s do-or-die time for Los Angeles. Luckily for them, there’s been a lot more do than die recently.
The offense has taken off over the past month. Kelsey Plum is striking an elite balance as a scorer and distributor. Rickea Jackson has taken her scoring to new heights. Dearica Hamby and Azurá Stevens have played well as supplemental scorers and strong rebounders. Adding Julie Allemand to the starting lineup as a table-setter has worked wonders. And of course, Cameron Brink has returned to the fold — a one-woman defensive wrecking crew.
The math is against Los Angeles down the stretch run. But I love its chances to overwhelm Phoenix with sheer offensive will in this game.
