At long last, Breanna Stewart is back on a basketball court, set to make her return to the New York Liberty’s lineup in tonight’s 7 p.m. ET game against the Connecticut Sun.
The two-time WNBA MVP hobbled off the court early in the first quarter in a July 26 loss to the Los Angeles Sparks with a bone bruise in her knee, and including that defeat, the Liberty have gone just 5-9 and posted the league’s fourth-worst net rating without her. She’s averaged 18.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 2.8 combined blocks/steals per game on 47-21-83 shooting splits.
New York is a 14.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set for 167.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bet centered around Stewie.
Best Breanna Stewart Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook
Breanna Stewart U14.5 Points (-125)
Liberty head coach Sandy Brondello acknowledged that in Stewart’s return, she’d be on a minutes restriction “in the 20s”, which seems likely to be far closer to 20 than 29 given that she’s been out of action for a month and the potential for a lopsided scoreline against the woeful Sun. Not including the game in which she got injured, Stewart has played fewer than 25 minutes just thrice this season and has scored 12 or fewer points in each of them. Overall, she’s averaged just 21.0 points per 36 minutes, the second-lowest rate of her career.
Though New York would probably like her to be the first option by the time the playoffs begin on September 14, it shouldn’t expect her to assume a leading role tonight. Since she got injured, Sabrina Ionescu has ranked fourth in the league in usage rate among players who have appeared in 10 or more games and played at least 250 minutes across that span, and Jonquel Jones (18th) and Emma Meesseman (22nd) aren’t too far behind. Jones has averaged an ultra-efficient 16.1 points per game since Stewart’s injury, so it’s not like she isn’t capable of thriving with her increased responsibility.
The team’s chemistry will take some time to develop. Stewart hasn’t taken the court with Meesseman in New York yet, as the three-time reigning EuroLeague Women’s MVP didn’t agree to make a WNBA return until August 1, so the pair may struggle to rekindle the partnership they developed with Turkish side Fenerbahçe in 2022. Plus, with Isabelle Harrison possibly slated to return as well after missing two weeks with a concussion, the Liberty’s front-court could suddenly be crowded.
