The final leg of the PGA TOUR playoffs starts this week with the TOUR Championship. This is the third and final playoff event that ultimately will decide who wins the FedEx Cup as the leader in the points race at the end of the season, and it features a 30-man field with only the top 30 in the FedEx Cup points race all teeing it up.
The event this season will be played at East Lake, a 7,440+ yard Par 70. East Lake is a Donald Ross design that was recently renovated a couple of years ago and is set to play as a longer Par 70 this season, with numerous longer Par 4s and water in play on eight holes. The venue has pure Bermuda greens that were enlarged to give more hole locations last season. It didn’t slow down the players last year as Scottie Scheffler shot 20-under par (-30 with the handicap) to win the event.
With the change back to a pure Par 70 and just two Par 5s, expect scoring to be tougher this season.
I wrote more about East Lake and the traits it will take to succeed at this venue in this week’s TOUR Championship PGA DFS Cheat Sheet.
“Driving accuracy at East Lake used to be about 10% lower than the PGA TOUR average, while the average driving distance for the week was also about 10% higher. I’d expect driver usage to remain fairly heavy, but with the fairways having been widened in spots, it may increase driving accuracy numbers and make aggression off the tee a more favorable strategy.
Additionally, as some of the greens have been modeled after their original design and made larger and more open, it seemed to place less emphasis on around-the-green play last season. Scottie Scheffler won despite losing strokes around the green and gained most of his strokes in the ball-striking department.
For statistical purposes, players with higher ball flights who can hold greens at a high rate (high GIR %’s) should benefit most from the changes, although putting on these pure Bermuda greens has always been a big factor and again, anyone finding their range with the putter this week will certainly have a shot at making an impact.
Despite East Lake featuring traditional rough, bunkers, and water areas (that come into play on eight holes), I’d still make Pinehurst #2 as a somewhat comparable venue. Pinehurst is another Donald Ross-designed course that was renovated 10+ years ago to its original design, and made more open and inviting off the tee. The fairways and greens were opened up and players were given more room to maneuver onto very tricky and firm greens. It’s not a one-for-one comparison, but the changes at East Lake sound very similar to what occurred at Pinehurst.”
DraftKings Pick6 has one round totals up for this week, so I’ll be focusing on first round picks, specifically birdie or better markets, and scoring totals, bogey or worse, and fairways hit. There is a lot of different angles to explore, so let’s get to the picks below.
Top DraftKings Pick6 Picks for the TOUR Championship
Tommy Fleetwood Less Than 2.5 Bogeys or Worse
Fleetwood is playing great golf right now. He’s been in contention at each of the first two playoff events and, outside of Scheffler, is hitting his irons as well as anyone on TOUR at the moment, having gained over 4.0 strokes on approach at each of the last two playoff events.
In terms of experience, Fleetwood has now played East Lake four times, which certainly counts for something. He had a disappointing start last season (T20) but was T-6 here back in 2023 and has gained strokes putting at this venue each of the past two seasons. At the BMW, he made just seven bogeys over four rounds, which was the second-fewest of the entire event.
East Lake won’t be easy, but with how consistent he’s been, I don’t see any reason to shy away from the “less than” in this case.
Scottie Scheffler More Than 8.5 Fairways Hit
East Lake isn’t an easy course, but it’s also the venue where Scheffler managed a -20 effort over four rounds last season. In that win, the American gained over 3.4 strokes off the tee and was dominant around the venue. He enters this year’s format hitting the ball even better, having gained over 4.0 strokes off the tee in each of the last two playoff events and ranked third in driving accuracy last week, hitting 41 out of 56 fairways.
While the fairways at East Lake may be slightly tougher to find, Scheffler is playing too well to ignore this low total. If he regresses or the course just plays more difficult than we think, we can always re-adjust for future rounds, but for Round 1, the “More Than” seems like a great play and the correct side to be on.
Jacob Bridgeman More Than 3.5 Birdies or Better
Bridgeman is coming off a nice week at the BMW, where he finished T-19 and managed to qualify for East Lake. A rookie at this event, he’s not someone I would necessarily want to back for a big week, but he is a player I’d be interested in being bullish on for a round or two. He gained strokes on approach in three of four rounds at Caves Valley and comes into this event ranked top 60 in birdie or better average for the year.
Many players have short multipliers of 0.7 or 0.8 on DraftKings Pick6 this week in the birdie or better totals, but Bridgeman’s payout ratio for a “More Than” isn’t reduced at all. That better payout, plus the fact that he enters playing well, is enough for me to add him to our list of targets this week, for Round 1 at least.
Shane Lowry Less Than 69.5 Strokes
Lowry has regressed a little since a nice midseason surge where he reeled off a T-8 at the Valspar and T-2 at the Truist. The Irishman has been a little up and down, but he has experience at East Lake (T9 in 2024) and gained strokes on approach for the first time in four starts last week at the BMW.
It’s also significant that while many of the players in the top half of this field have stroke totals of 68.5 or lower, we can still get Lowry, who is a very quality player, at just 69.5. I’m all for taking the discount in this instance as the pressure is off players like Lowry this week, who was on the bubble at the BMW, and with his game coming around a bit, it should free him up (hopefully) for a good start this week.
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