It’s been a good, but not great start for Brian Kelly at LSU. Now in year four, 2025 will be a crucial year for Kelly to get the Tigers to the College Football Playoff if he wants to live up to expectations. LSU’s win total sits at 8.5, juiced to the over, but is this team actually improved?
The Tigers went 8-4 last season, following Jayden Daniels’ departure to the NFL, including a pair of losses when favored. Kelly is now 0-3 in season openers at LSU, including 0-3 ATS. Two of those losses were as the favorite, and one of them was as just a one-point underdog to FSU. All three of those openers were played at neutral sites. This season will be Kelly’s most difficult opener by far — a true road game at Clemson as a four-point underdog. I backed Clemson in the game, which you can read about on DK Network here.
Once we get into SEC play, the Tigers have tough road games at Alabama, Oklahoma and Ole Miss. The schedule also includes some difficult home games against Texas A&M, Florida and South Carolina. Even if LSU goes over its win total and gets to nine wins, it still isn’t guaranteed to get into a 12-team CFP — just look at Alabama and South Carolina last season. And if the Tigers go under nine wins, then they have absolutely no shot at the CFP.
While LSU has all the glamour positions covered, I’m concerned about how it’ll perform in the trenches. Garrett Nussmeier is one of the top quarterbacks in the country, and is surrounded with terrific receivers, as well as a solid running back room. However, the offensive line could be a massive liability. The Tigers lost four offensive lineman to the NFL, including No. 4 overall pick Will Campbell. It’s a much less experienced and talented unit this season, and Phil Steele ranks the LSU OL as 43rd in the country — not good for a team projected to content in the SEC. Protecting the QB could be the downfall of Kelly’s team this season.
It’s a similar story on the defensive side of the ball. LSU has talented linebackers that can come up with some big plays, but the front and back end of the defense have questions. Steele ranks the defensive line 22nd in the nation and the secondary at 28th. Again, these sound like strong position rankings, but for a SEC team that ranks in the top-10 of the Preseason AP Poll, these units could be issues.
Between the weak offensive line, a defense that I believe will regress, and a difficult schedule, I don’t see Kelly getting the Tigers to the CFP in his fourth season.
CFB Pick: LSU to Make CFP: NO (-140) 1-unit
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