It’ll be a battle of Tigers and a battle for Death Valley when LSU travels to Clemson to a top-10 matchup on Saturday night in Week 1. Something’s got to give here, as No. 4 Clemson has lost three of its last four season openers, and No. 9 LSU has lost five consecutive season openers — including 0-3 SU/ATS under Brian Kelly.
In the first three go-arounds, Kelly’s Tigers were short favorites (to USC and FSU) and a short underdog (to FSU) in their openers, all of which were technically played on neutral fields. This time, they’re a growing underdog in what sets up as a really difficult Week 1 spot. This is a true road game for LSU, and should be a hostile primetime Saturday night environment, facing arguably the most experienced team in the nation.
Clemson is the heavy favorite in the ACC, but hasn’t fared well against SEC competition in recent seasons. However, this figures to be Dabo Swinney’s best roster since the Trevor Lawrence days. Cade Klubnik returns his top-three pass-catchers, and will play behind a deep, veteran offensive line. Nine starters return on defense, and each level of the defense ranks among the top units in the country.
There are many areas where these two teams grade out pretty evenly. Both Klubnik and Garrett Nussmeier are among the top Heisman candidates. Both wide receiver rooms are stacked. We’ll give the running back room advantage to LSU. However, I expect some noticeable mismatches on the line of scrimmage to be the key to this game.
While LSU has a talented linebacker core, Phil Steele ranks the defensive line 22nd in the national, after four starters departed. Advantage to the Clemson offensive line that I noted above — Steele ranks it the second best offensive line in the country. Other notable publications also rank it in the top-10 nationally — seventh (Athlon) and eighth (Lindy’s). That protection holding up should make a difference in Klubnik’s ability to make plays downfield, as Steele ranks LSU’s defensive backs 28th in the nation.
While Nussmeier is a terrific quarterback, he needs protection to be productive. I expect the largest key in this game to be Clemson’s defensive line manhandling LSU up front. Steele ranks LSU’s OL just 43rd in the country, but grades Clemson’s DL as the second-best. The other publications also think highly of Clemson up front, ranking it seventh (Athlon) and eighth (Lindy’s) on the DL, once again.
Even when Nussmeier does find time, he’ll be facing a much more daunting secondary. Steele grades Clemson’s defensive backs at third in the country, with Athlon and Lindy’s both ranking it the seventh-best. Watch out for Clemson to wreak havoc with its defensive line, particularly with LSU operating in a rowdy road atmosphere.
Home field should absolutely play a role in this game, and the matchups up front should sway the advantage to Clemson. With the price growing on the home favorite, I’m comfortable pairing it with Alabama on the Week 1 moneyline to get a better price.
CFB Pick: Clemson/Alabama MLP (-111) 2-units
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