UPDATE: Per NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo, Brian Robinson Jr. and the Commanders have mutually agreed the halfback won’t play in Monday’s preseason game. It’s a noteworthy development likely made to protect the player’s health as trade speculation lingers.
Last season, the Washington Commanders led the NFL in EPA per carry at 0.13. Much of that was due to the rushing prowess of quarterback Jayden Daniels, who rushed 148 times for 891 yards and posted an EPA per carry of 0.45, second only to Josh Allen’s 0.58.
Brian Robinson Jr. led the team with 623 snaps while Austin Ekeler was second with 521. Robinson carried 187 times for 799 yards and finished with an EPA per carry of -0.10. Ekeler had an EPA per carry of 0.04, but he only carried 77 times, as he garnered more pass-catching responsibilities.
With the Commanders trying to take advantage of this window while Daniels is still on his rookie contract, upgrades were made in the offseason with the acquisitions of wide receiver Deebo Samuel and left tackle Laremy Tunsil.
A change at running back now seems evident. On Sunday, Jordan Schultz reported that Washington has been shopping Robinson around the NFL.
After selecting Robinson in the third round of the 2022 NFL draft, Robinson has failed to rush for 800 yards in any season while sporting a career yards per attempt of 4.1. Last season was his highest mark at 4.3. In addition, seventh-round pick in the 2025 NFL draft, Jacory Croskey-Merritt has performed well all offseason and been talked about in a positive light.
So, with Robinson likely getting traded or cut soon, which team could he end up on?
For starters, let’s look at his contract. Robinson is in the final year of his rookie deal and is set to make $3.4 million this season. He’s an unrestricted free agent next season. I’m skeptical that any team would trade for Robinson, but could take a chance if he gets cut, which seems like the most likely scenario.
The Cleveland Browns have a ton of running backs on the roster but, if Quinshon Judkins is unable to play, Robinson could provide a physical element to the rushing attack since Jerome Ford and Dylan Sampson are both around 200 pounds while Robinson is close to 230 pounds. That said, the Browns may not be afforded many ground-and-pound opportunities since the defense could be bad once again, so the pass-catching abilities of Ford and Sampson would fit better.
The Pittsburgh Steelers like to pound the rock. With Arthur Smith as offensive coordinator and the offseason struggles of Kaleb Johnson, Robinson could be the thunder to Jaylen Warren’s lightning. Unlike with the Browns, the Steelers boast a good defense and should have competent quarterback play with Aaron Rodgers under center.
If Joe Mixon is out for an extended period of time and Nick Chubb looks like a shell of himself, then Robinson could make some sense. That’s a lot of hoops to jump through, though, and the offensive line is a huge question mark in Houston. Robinson couldn’t get going while playing alongside one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in Daniels.
Dallas has a lot of dudes, but Jaydon Blue is the only one who excites. Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders both posted EPA per carry of -0.2 last season. Robinson was just slightly better at -0.1.
Minnesota has a nice duo of Aaron Jones Sr. and Jordan Mason in the backfield, but the rest of the depth chart is uninspiring. Minnesota likely wants to run the ball a little bit more this season with J.J. McCarthy under center. Robinson could provide some hefty depth behind Mason.
