Major League Baseball has a stacked Wednesday night slate with eight games starting at 6:35 p.m. ET or later. The two New York games have some iffy weather, but the rest of the contests still provide plenty of options for home run props. After looking at the matchups, environments, odds, and current form of the players on the board this Wednesday night, my favorite home run props are from Agustin Ramirez, Jose Altuve and Junior Caminero.
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and swing for the fences with these home run props — all home run props are long-shot bets by nature. Even the best home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, making home run props never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators to consider, these picks remain volatile plays.
Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re very uncertain. What makes home run props exciting is that long odds yield big returns when they do smash. I also typically play home run props in round robins at a small unit size, which boosts the ceiling of your betting card even higher if multiple home run props hit on any given day.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Wednesday.
Best HR Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Agustin Ramirez to record 1+ home runs (+475)
The Marlins and the Guardians meet in Cleveland in one of the two games just before 7:00 p.m. ET, and the Fish will look to snap a four-game losing streak as they go against Gavin Williams, who almost threw a no-hitter against the Mets in his last start.
Despite that impressive outing, Williams has been homer-prone at times this season, allowing 16 homers in 23 starts and six in his last eight outings since July 1. Righties have done most of the damage against Williams this season, with nine of his homers allowed (56%) in just 51% of plate appearances against him. Righties are hitting .286 with a .356 wOBA against him while lefties are hitting only .130 with a .239 wOBA.
The Marlins’ top righty power hitter this season has been Ramirez, who joined the team at the end of April and has racked up 17 homers while hitting .236 with a .309 wOBA.
Throughout his time in the minors, Ramirez produced outstanding exit velocity when he was able to make consistent contact. He has continued that since his promotion with a 48.3% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity over 91 miles per hour. He has a 48.0% hard-hit rate and 12.0% barrel rate in his 23 games since the All-Star break, so even though he only has three homers, he’s still smashing the ball.
His last long ball came in this two-homer game against the Yankees.
On Wednesday, I like his chances to get back in the home run column, especially with these juicy odds on his home run props.
Jose Altuve to record 1+ home runs (+500)
Altuve and the Astros take on the Red Sox in the rubber game of their three-game set, and I’m excited that he’s available at +500 against Walker Buehler.
Altuve already has 21 homers this year in 116 games, surpassing his total from last year in 153 games. He hit three of those homers in his last seven games and eight in his last 35 games since July 1.
While his most recent homer in the tweet above came on the road, 11 of his 21 dingers have been at home, where he’s hitting .314 on the season with a .373 wOBA. He also has a strong .350 wOBA and 125 wRC+ against righties like Buehler.
Buehler has had a roller-coaster season in Boston, going 7-6 with a 5.40 ERA and 5.72 FIP. While he has had some strong starts, righties have hit 12 of the 19 homers against him this season, and on the road, he has a 6.52 ERA and .389 wOBA against him
Altuve has been the heart of the Astros’ offense this season, and his bounce-back year has kept them in the AL West race. He brings great value with his home run props at +500 since Buehler has been so hittable on the road.
Junior Caminero to record 1+ home runs (+245)
The best home run weather on the board is in sunny Sacramento, where the Rays take on the Athletics. Since I’ve taken some longer shots in my first two home run props, I’m going a little more chalky here and backing Caminero to go yard against J.T. Ginn and the Athletics.
While I like Ginn as a bargain starting pitcher play for MLB DFS, I do think the Rays rookie slugger is a great play to go yard. Caminero has already hit an eye-popping 33 homers this season at just 22 years old.
Caminero has five homers in his last six games and 10 homers in his 24 games since the All-Star break. On the season, his hard-hit rate is 49.7%, but since the break, it has jumped to 59.5% while his average exit velocity is 94.4 miles per hour. To put that in context, Shohei Ohtani’s average exit velocity for the season is also 94.4 miles per hour, which ranks fourth in the majors.
Caminero will look to keep crushing against Ginn, who has allowed eight homers in 26 innings at home this season and 12 homers in 53 1/3 innings overall. While I do think Ginn is trending in the right direction, he could still give up home runs on Wednesday night, and Caminero is quickly establishing himself as one of the best young sluggers in the game.
