There might be three playoff basketball teams in Los Angeles in 2025: after the Los Angeles Lakers and LA Clippers both earned top-six seeds in the 2024-25 NBA season, a recent charge has put the Los Angeles Sparks within striking distance of the WNBA playoffs. Entering tonight’s matchup against the Indiana Fever, they’re 12-15 and have +240 odds of making the eight-team tournament.
Tonight, the Fever will once again be without Caitlin Clark, who will miss her seventh straight game with a groin injury. Indiana is 9-7 without its talismanic star this season, including its current five-game win streak.
The Fever are 1.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-120 Moneyline), with the total set at 176.5 points, and Los Angeles is +100 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the clash and offer a prediction.
Fever at Sparks prediction, pick
In its six post-All-Star break games, Indiana has continued its defensive dominance without Clark. In that span, the Fever have had the league’s third-best defensive rating, allowed the third-fewest rebounds and fewest assists, and limited opponents to the third-lowest percentage inside the restricted area and the second-lowest percentage from deep. Aliyah Boston ranks seventh in the league this season with 1.7 defensive win shares and second with 5.4 win shares, while Natasha Howard and Lexie Hull have all amassed at least one DWS. Clark aside, Indiana has also been remarkably healthy: Boston, Howard, Hull, and Kelsey Mitchell have all played all 29 games.
Offensively, the Fever have been led by Kelsey Mitchell, who’s had four 20-plus-point games and two complete duds since the All-Star break, though both of her poor performances came in victories. However, she’s not doing it alone; Boston has had six straight double-doubles despite somewhat poor efficiency, Howard had 21 points in Sunday’s win over the Seattle Storm, and Sophie Cunningham has posted 61-52-86 shooting splits. Since the All-Star showcase, Indiana has recorded the third-best three-point percentage and the most steals, which is a good recipe for success against a team that has been among the league’s most turnover-prone this season.
The Sparks have gone 4-1 since the All-Star break, with narrow wins over the Washington Mystics, New York Liberty, and Storm and a loss to the Las Vegas Aces. They’ve won mostly through a dominant offense that has been the league’s third-best in that span, as they’ve had top-five marks in field-goal and three-point percentage while controlling the glass. Kelsey Plum has scored 20 or more points in each of her last four games, putting up 47-35-93 shooting splits in that stretch, and Dearica Hamby has had four double-doubles in her last five. Los Angeles has also been the third-most accurate team from the midrange, a zone that the Fever have struggled to defend, and it has also held teams to among the lowest percentages from floater range and from above the break.
The X-factor in this game could be Cameron Brink, last season’s second overall pick who has been on a heavy minutes restriction over her first two games while recovering from the torn ACL that ended her 2024 season early. The six-foot-four Stanford product has been an impactful defender in her limited minutes, recording three steals and four blocks in under 26 total minutes of game time, and the Sparks have been 3.2 points per 100 possessions better with her on the court. Now on three days of rest, Brink could see more minutes tonight and make life more difficult for Indiana, which has been one of the league’s most layup-reliant teams since the All-Star break.
