The gap between the Connecticut Sun and the Phoenix Mercury in this WNBA season has been vast this year. But there’s reason to think it’s been meaningfully narrowed going into this matchup.
It sounds odd to say that winning two of their last five games is a big deal for Connecticut. But, for the 5-22 Sun, it is, especially when you consider the competition. One of those wins came against the defending champion Liberty, the other against the eighth-seed Valkyries. The losses against New York, Los Angeles, and Seattle (all teams playing well) came by nine, 15, and 16 points, respectively. For a squad that suffered 10 losses by 16+ points in their first 17 games, that’s a significant accomplishment.
Meanwhile, the Mercury are in their roughest stretch of the season. Losers of five of their last seven, Phoenix has failed the contender test. Those losses came against the Lynx, Liberty, Fever, and twice against the Dream. Those are all teams in their tier of contention or above. Phoenix has to regroup and lock in during the stretch run, or its hopes of a deep playoff run will be moot.
The Mercury are 13.5-point favorites at home and hold -1000 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 165.5 points. Let’s look at the best bets and predictions for this Mercury-Sun contest.
Mercury vs. Sun prediction, pick
The injury report bears watching in this one, specifically concerning Satou Sabally. During a poor stretch for the All-Star, head coach Nate Tibbetts benched her for half a game and called out her effort. Then, she missed their last game for personal reasons. It’s hard not to connect the dots, and one can only hope that Sabally is okay on a personal level. There are bigger things than basketball. But, if their All-Star is out or underperforming due to these struggles, it is worth noting.
With or without Sabally, the struggle is real for Phoenix. Their defense has taken a huge step back during this losing streak. The Mercury allowed 79+ points in all five of their losses during this skid; that’s happened in 11 of their other 23 games. That’s bad timing against a Sun offense that has woken up.
Connecticut has scored 77+ points in seven straight games. Before that, they had 77+ points in seven of 20 games. It’s no coincidence that the return of Marina Mabrey has fueled this resurgence. Her numbers don’t stand out in her last five games back from injury, but her presence is significant. A perimeter creator to be feared opens things up for the rest of the team.
It’s not enough to bet on the Sun winning outright against the Mercury. But it’s enough to question that large spread.
