As we enter the fourth month of the WNBA season, it’s fair to start looking ahead to the stretch run, with more than half the season squarely in the rear-view mirror. With the league’s top eight teams advancing to the WNBA playoffs, the 16-10 Phoenix Mercury and the 16-11 Atlanta Dream are both shoo-ins for the postseason.
They’ll meet tonight in Atlanta for a 7:30 p.m. clash. It’ll be their second of three meetings, after the Dream claimed a 90-79 victory on July 23.
The Mercury are 2.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-142 Moneyline), with the total set at 163.5 points, and Atlanta is +120 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the potential playoff preview and offer a prediction.
Mercury at Dream prediction, pick
The Dream were in action on Wednesday, managing an 88-85 victory over the Dallas Wings despite 21 points from the Wings’ rookie sensation Paige Bueckers. The victory improved Atlanta’s record since losing All-Star guard Rhyne Howard to 4-3, which included a win over the WNBA-leading Minnesota Lynx, and, overall, it is just 1.5 points per 100 possessions better with Howard on the floor. The team’s strong form will allow Dream coach Karl Smesko to take a conservative approach with his star, who’s expected to return some time this month after sustaining a left knee injury on July 11.
Without Howard, Atlanta has been anchored by a strong defense, as it has posted the league’s fourth-best defensive rating over the last seven games. Across that span, the Dream have been particularly dominant on the interior, allowing a league-low 30.7 rebounds per game, in part because of six-foot-nine center Brittney Griner. The former Phoenix star had a solid 17-point, eight-rebound performance in her revenge game and followed it up with a monstrous 22-point effort last Saturday against the Lynx. Since Howard’s injury, Atlanta’s opponents have shot just 56.9% inside the restricted area, the third-best mark in the league, and have averaged only 32.5 points in the paint per game.
The Dream have been exploitable from deep, though, allowing the fourth-highest percentage overall and the second-highest since Howard’s injury. It remains to be seen if the Mercury can capitalize even with Monique Akoa Makani — whose 43.8% mark from deep is the third-best among 41 players who have played at least 20 games and attempt at least three triples per night — sidelined with a concussion.
Tonight’s contest should be a fairly low-scoring affair, because Phoenix has allowed just 99.9 points per 100 possessions this season, the fourth-best in the WNBA. This season, it has been led by Alyssa Thomas, a two-time Defensive Player of the Year runner-up who is putting together by far the best offensive season of her career after 11 years with the Connecticut Sun, averaging 16.4 points, 8.3 boards, and 9.2 assists per game, while continuing to play elite defense. Her fellow Mercury newcomer, Satou Sabally, has been no less impressive, averaging 17.6 points and 6.9 rebounds per game while ranking 17th in the league with 1.2 defensive win shares despite missing nearly three weeks with an injury.
Phoenix’s interior defense has been even more dominant than Atlanta’s, allowing the second-fewest made restricted-area tries per game, including just 56.2% accuracy in the four games since Sabally returned from her injury. Across that span, the Mercury have also allowed the second-lowest percentage on midrange shots (32.5%), but they’ve had some trouble closing out on opposing shooters, allowing the league’s fifth-highest three-point percentage overall and the third-highest since Sabally’s return. The Dream’s rookie shooting specialist Te-Hina PaoPao, who made her fifth start of the season in Wednesday’s defeat, will have to take advantage, and Allisha Gray will have to improve on the 34.0% mark she’s recorded with Howard sidelined.
