Series finales here on a Wednesday, with plenty of day baseball. All the drippiest players are going to be catching some serious sunlight on the diamond today, and we’re just trying to cash in on some of the evening slate. In a short time, I’ll link extended previews/predictions up for the White Sox vs. Cubs, Angels vs. Mariners, and Giants vs. Mets games tonight. Having said that, based on my preliminary research, here are my three favorite baseball bets today surrounding my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Cubs -1.5 (+100) at White Sox
The Cubs are poised to dominate their crosstown rivals at Guaranteed Rate Field in Sunday’s rubber match. Chicago’s North Siders bring a 61-43 record and (shaky—hello, Brewers!) first-place standing, whereas the South Siders languish at 38-67 (dead last in AL Central). This mismatch screams value on the run line.
The Cubs thrive against right-handed pitching, going 47-26 vs. RHP starters, while the White Sox are a dreadful 27-52 in those games. White Sox rookie opener Grant Taylor has only 18.1 MLB innings (0-1, 3.93 ERA) and is primarily a reliever. He’s unlikely to go deep, exposing a shaky Chicago bullpen. Meanwhile, Cubs starter Ben Brown’s ERA is inflated, but the flailing White Sox offense (just 4.32 runs/game) offers relief.
White Sox hitters are slumping—Luis Robert Jr. is batting a paltry .206 with a 29% K-rate – and they’ve averaged only 2.0 runs in their last two losses to the Cubs. On the flip side, the Cubs’ lineup is loaded: Prince-who-was-promised Pete Crow‑Armstrong (27 HR, 74 RBI) and best buddy Seiya Suzuki (26 HR, 81 RBI) power an offense scoring 5.27 runs/game, and both have been quiet. Meaning—they’re due. That’s not even talking about Kyle Tucker’s consistency, nor Matt Shaw’s hot streak.
Momentum and trends heavily favor the Cubs. The White Sox have lost 18 of their last 19 home games against NL Central teams following a prior loss—a pattern likely to continue after yesterday’s defeat. The Cubs have won each of their last seven games against the White Sox following a win, showing a killer instinct in this rivalry. In fact, as moneyline favorites the Cubs are 46-23 (67.7%) this season. By contrast, the White Sox fold as big underdogs—just 8-33 (19.5%) when +165 or longer.
I expect the Cubs to pour it on and win by multiple runs.
Mariners -1.5 (+100) at Angels
Seattle is surging and in a perfect spot to notch a decisive road win in Anaheim. The Mariners (56-49) boast a balanced attack, averaging 4.60 runs/game with a blend of speed and power. Notably, Seattle is one of only four MLB teams ranking top‑10 in both home runs and steals—a dynamic profile that threatens the Angels on multiple fronts.
Julio Rodríguez is back, and just a wee bit late this year. He’s slashed .350/.412/.680 with a 175 wRC+ over his last ten games, and what’s good for that goose is fantastic for the PNW gander, as it were. In Saturday’s 7-2 win, the M’s showcased that versatility with multi‑hit efforts and aggressive baserunning, and another dinger from J-Rod.
Now they send out Logan Gilbert, a flame‑throwing righty in peak form. Gilbert has a 3.07 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP in 13 starts, and he’s been downright dominant in July (five earned runs total in his last four outings). His electric stuff should carve up an Angels lineup that strikes out plenty and ranks just 17th in scoring. Meanwhile, Los Angeles hands the ball to veteran Kyle Hendricks (5-7, 4.92 ERA). Hendricks has allowed 10 runs over his last three starts and faces a Seattle squad that feasts on contact pitchers.
Advanced stats underline Seattle’s edge. The Angels’ staff ERA is 4.65 (26th in MLB) and their bullpen has been overworked and ineffective, whereas Seattle’s pitching is top‑10 with a 3.87 ERA. Offensively, the Angels are one‑dimensional. With key bats injured or slumping, they’ve averaged only 3.4 runs during a 1-5 skid. Their lack of speed and extra‑base pop leaves them vulnerable in a hitter-friendly park tonight.
Trends favor Seattle: they’ve won five of their last six road games and covered the run line in five of those six. The Angels have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 5 day games at home following a loss. With Gilbert dealing and Seattle’s offense clicking, the Mariners should win by 2+ runs comfortably.
Mets -1.5 (+135) at Giants
The Mets (61-44) are red‑hot, riding a six‑game winning streak, and they have their ace on the mound. Kodai Senga (7-3, 1.79 ERA) has been virtually untouchable, allowing only five earned runs in his last four starts combined. Even after a brief IL stint, Senga looked sharp; his career 2.60 ERA over 45 starts proves his consistency. The Giants’ lineup should be overmatched – San Francisco has been held to one run in each of the first two games of this series, and their offensive metrics are ugly. Over the last month, the Giants rank 25th in wOBA and 26th in ISO overall. On the season, they’re 23rd in runs (4.12/game) and 27th in slugging (.375). They lack firepower.
San Francisco is resorting to a bullpen game with lefty Matt Gage making his first MLB start. Gage and follow‑up long man Carson Seymour have a combined 15.2 MLB innings. That inexperience is ripe for exploitation by the Mets’ patient hitters (New York ranks fourth in walks). Even if the Giants’ bullpen owns a strong ERA, asking fringe arms to silence this Mets lineup for nine innings is a tall order.
Meanwhile, the Mets bullpen (3.77 ERA) is top‑10 as well, backing up Senga’s likely gem. Key trend: New York has covered the run line in 10 straight road games vs NL West opponents, and they’ve dominated this matchup, winning the last three meetings.
The Mets also thrive as favorites, with eight consecutive wins when laying odds against NL West teams. Expect Senga to throttle the Giants again and New York’s bats to do enough damage early.
