The PGA heads to Minnesota this week for the annual 3M Open. This is the second-to-last event of the regular season, as the PGA playoffs begin in August. The 3M Open is a relatively new event which began back in 2019. It’s seen a very eclectic mix of winners, including big hitters like Cameron Champ, Matthew Wolff, and Jhonattan Vegas, and shorter hitters like Lee Hodges and Michael Thompson.
The venue this week will be TPC Twin Cities, which plays as a long par 71 at over 7,400 yards and features big fairways and greens which are surrounded by water on almost every hole.
I wrote more about TPC Twin Cities in this week’s 3M Open PGA DFS Cheat Sheet.
“Water is a massive feature of TPC Twin Cities and comes into play on nearly every hole. However, while the water does bring in a variable element, the rest of the course is relatively straightforward. The parkland course is very flat and offers big fairways and larger-than-average greens. Additionally, while there are a lot of fairway bunkers strewn around the course, most don’t come into play for the pros due to their somewhat inefficient placement. That means that players who can avoid the trouble off the tee generally can be very aggressive on approaches, especially since the course features well-manicured bentgrass fairways that will almost always produce a great lie.
We typically see GIR%’s and Driving Accuracy numbers here that are well above average, so even with the water lurking, this event often turns into an iron-and-putting contest. It’s no shock that aggressive iron players like Tony Finau, Matthew Wolff, and 2023 winner Lee Hodges have all gone low at this course, or that four of the first five winners at TPC Twin Cities have gained over 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. Last year, Jhonattan Vegas shot 63 in Round 3 and went on to win by a stroke over Max Greyserman. Vegas gained over 3.0 strokes OTT and over 6.0 strokes on approach.”
The weather is expected to be quite good this week, with lower winds and only a few scattered thunderstorms between periods of sunshine. With a softer course thanks to some early week rain, expect low scoring and tons of birdies right from the get-go. Keep that in mind when making picks this week, as players who typically excel in lower-scoring events will likely have a clear advantage.
DraftKings Pick6 has full tournament totals up for this week, so I’ll again be focusing on FULL TOURNAMENT totals, specifically finishing positions (“Better Than” or “Worse Than”), but also the holes played market, which essentially acts as a “make or miss the cut” question.
Top DraftKings Pick6 Picks for the 3M Open
Kurt Kitayama Better Than 35.5 Finishing Position
Kitayama has started to string together some solid results. The American finished T14 at the Barracuda Championship last week and was T5 at the John Deere just a few weeks ago, an event where he gained big off the tee and on approach. His putting is still quite volatile, but considering how good he is hitting the ball, this 35.5 total seems quite manageable.
If his putter shows up at all, he should push for a top 30 or better quite easily, and even if he struggles on the greens, his ball-striking could still carry us to hitting the “better than” in this spot. He finished T6 at this event last season (while losing strokes putting) and looks like a player to be bullish on right now, as his valuations for Pick6 are still very reasonable.
Jake Knapp Better Than 34.5 Finishing Position
This should be a solid setup for Knapp, a big hitter off the tee who has thrived in spots like this, where accurate ball-striking and consistency can pay off with low scores. This will be his first time playing TPC Twin Cities, but the American’s recent form suggests he shouldn’t have too much trouble adapting. He’s finished T27 or better in each of his last four starts and has been gaining consistently off the tee and on approach.
Knapp may not win on his first time playing TPC Twin Cities, but for Pick6, I do trust that his consistency will keep him out of trouble and land him a decent week–and likely another top 30 finish. For lineup building, anything over 30.0 as a finishing position total looks too low on Knapp, who is playing well and, stylistically, sets up very well for this week.
Doug Ghim More Than 36.5 Holes Played (0.8x)
We have to take a small payout deduction if using Ghim in this category, but even with a reduction, he looks like a solid value to target this week. Ghim is coming off a decent week at the Barracuda, where he landed a T20 finish. The American has been playing solidly of late, shooting a 62 in the John Deere, a tournament where he also gained over 6.8 strokes on approach and over 2.0 strokes off the tee.
He’s also a fantastic iron player who is very consistent off the tee, and his strengths line up well with this venue. He’s had a T6 at the PLAYERS and T5 at the Amex, two Pete Dye venues that also feature a ton of water and require solid approach play to succeed. From a course history perspective, he’s now played TPC Twin Cities five times and finished top 25 in each of the past three seasons. Overall, I’d be pretty surprised if he faltered this week, and view using the “more than” 36.5 holes played option on him as a good way to boost the payout amount of our lineups.
Ben Kohles More Than 36.5 Holes Played
Kohles isn’t a big hitter, but he is a solid iron player and putter and has been playing well of late. He was T44 at the John Deere a couple of weeks ago and managed to gain over 6.0 strokes on approach that week. Before that, he finished T8 at the ISCO Championship, which was played in very tough conditions.
Last year, he also managed a T24 at TPC Twin Cities, while gaining over 3.0 strokes off the tee and on the greens. Overall, Kohles is a pretty consistent player when he’s hitting his irons well, and, given his form, I would expect that he’ll be able to hold his own this week in a weaker field on a course that he’s played before and had some success on. We can take the “more than” on 36.5 holes for Kohles without a payout deduction, so I view him as a solid value in this market for Pick6 lineups this week.
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