The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history, and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: $800K Summer Sand Trap [$200K to 1st]
The Field
The PGA TOUR has just two events left on its regular season schedule, and, for some golfers, these events will be huge starts depending on where they sit in the FedEx Cup rankings. Only the top 70 players at the end of the regular season (Wyndham Championship in two weeks) will have full eligibility for next season and access to the elevated events in 2025. Anyone outside of that will have to play in the Fall series and see if they can move up or maintain their standing to get into the top 125 when all is said and done.
The field this week has plenty of solid players sitting just on the top 70 bubble as well, with names like Byeong Hun An, Matti Schmid, and Keith Mitchell all just inside the top 70. Leading the field this week are names like Sam Burns, Akshay Bhatia, and Wyndham Clark. All three men made the cut last week in Ireland, with Clark having an outstanding week with a T4 finish. Of note is that fellow T4 finisher Hao Tong Li is also now in the field after his big week in Ireland.
The cut this week goes back to its regular occurrence of only the top 65 and ties, making the weekend after Friday.
The Course
TPC Twin Cities—Minneapolis, Minnesota
Par 71, 7,431; Greens: Bentgrass
TPC Twin Cities was designed in 2000 by Arnold Palmer and redesigned by Tom Lehman in 2018. On top of hosting the 3M Open in 2019 and 2020, this venue also hosted a PGA TOUR Champions event between 2001-2018.
Twin Cities was redesigned to accommodate its new spot on the PGA TOUR rotation in 2018 and now plays as a Par 71 but at well over 7,400 yards. The venue was one of the easier stops on the Champions Tour and has continued to cede a lot of birdies to the PGA pros, despite this venue also being one of the leaders in water balls every season.
Water is a massive feature of TPC Twin Cities and comes into play on nearly every hole. However, while the water does bring in a variable element, the rest of the course is relatively straightforward. The parkland course is very flat and offers big fairways and larger-than-average greens. Additionally, while there are a lot of fairway bunkers strewn around the course, most don’t come into play for the pros due to their somewhat inefficient placement. That means that players who can avoid the trouble off the tee generally can be very aggressive on approaches, especially since the course features well-manicured bentgrass fairways that will almost always produce a great lie.
We typically see GIR%’s and Driving Accuracy numbers here that are well above average, so even with the water lurking, this event often turns into an iron-and-putting contest. It’s no shock that aggressive iron players like Tony Finau, Matthew Wolff, and 2023 winner Lee Hodges have all gone low at this course, or that four of the first five winners at TPC Twin Cities have gained over 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. Last year, Jhonattan Vegas shot 63 in Round 3 and went on to win by a stroke over Max Greyserman. Vegas gained over 3.0 strokes OTT and over 6.0 strokes on approach.
The greens and fairways are pure bentgrass and can get a little firm, but around the green play itself has meant little at Twin Cities, with winners gaining most of their strokes on approach and putting. Vegas himself even lost strokes ATG last season. As far as course correlations go, TPC Scottsdale looks like a solid comparable, and it’s worth noting players like Alex Noren, Tony Finau, and Louis Oosthuizen have all landed top-six finishes at both venues over the last five seasons. Additionally, there is a decent link with the Glen Club, a course that hosts the NV5 Invitational event on the Korn Ferry Tour and is also built around houses and man-made water traps.
For stats, there is little doubt that players who have showcased big upside with their irons of late should be keyed in on at this venue. While we have had several longshot winners, most of them (Hodges, Champ, Thompson, Vegas, and Wolff) had shown some kind of upside with their approach game, in a recent start, before their win.
2025 weather: Weather and summer thunderstorms can sometimes affect this event. The beginning of the week looks very wet with some rain in the forecast for all three days. However, things lighten up a bit on Thursday and the last three days look perfect with low winds, highs in the 85-90F range, and no rain. The players should get a full go at a soft course this season, so expect scores to be low and players who like birdie-fests to prosper the most. The early Thursday wave may see a little more rain than the afternoon, and that’s something to watch, although I wouldn’t expect much of a wave split to develop this week.
Last 5 winners
2024–Jhonattan Vegas -17 (over Max Greyserman)
**other noteables Maverick McNealy and Matt Kuchar (T3)
2023—Lee Hodges -24 (over multiple players -17)
**other notables JT Poston (T2), Tony Finau (T7), Cam Davis (T10
2022—Tony Finau -17 (over multiple players -14)
**other notables include Sungjae Im T2, Greyson Sigg T7
2021—Cameron Champ -15 (over Louis Oosthuizen -13)
**other notables include Adam Hadwin T6 and Maverick McNealy T16
2020—Michael Thompson 19-under (over Adam Long -17)
**other notables include Tony Finau and Emiliano Grillo T3
2019—Matthew Wolff 21-under-par (over Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa -20)
**other notables include Adam Hadwin and Wyndham Clark T5
Winners Stats and Course Overview
Jhonattan Vegas -17 (2024)
2024 lead-in form (T20 – T25 – T27 – MC – MC)
SG: OTT — +1.8SG:
APP — +9.4
SG: TTG — +12.4
SG: ATG — +1.2
SG: PUTT — +6.2
- Pure driving distance has proven to be helpful for two of the first three winners at TPC Twin Cities (with Wolff and Champ being two of the longest hitters in the field), and it is a driver-heavy course, with the average driving distance being much higher than the average PGA TOUR stop.
- Jhonattan Vegas is also still a great driver, and the added room off the tee clearly helped him last season as he gained over 3.0 strokes OTT for the week.
- This week is very much about good iron play and putting since the greens and fairways tend to be easy to hit. In 2020, the top 11 finishers all gained strokes on approach for the week, while six of the top eight finishers gained +2.5 strokes or more with their irons.
- Hodges (2023) wasn’t as dominant as some past winners off the tee, but he destroyed this course with his irons and gave himself plenty of birdie chances, which he converted on for a 7-shot win
- With high GIR and fairway stats, around-the-green play hasn’t been very important to past winners. Champ (2021) and Vegas (2024) actually lost strokes around the green while winning. None of the players who finished in the top 10 of the event in 2021 were inside the top 10 in ATG stats.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Davis Thompson +3500 and $8,800
Comparables:
Akshay Bhatia +4000 and $8,000
Comparables:
HORSES FOR COURSES
1. Tony Finau ($10,600; win – 2022, 3rd -2020): Finau has eaten up easy courses over the last few seasons, and Twin Cities has been at the top of his hit list. He won going away after shooting 10-under on the weekend in 2022 and finished T7 in 2023.
2. Emiliano Grillo ($8,500; T2 – 2022, T3 – 2020): The Argentine likes this setup, having twice finished inside the top five at Twin Cities. He’s been making more cuts as of late and has a sharp approach game that plays well on this course.
3. Brice Garnett ($6,500; T16 – 2021): Garnett has been very consistent at this venue for whatever reason. The veteran has made the cut at Twin Cities in each of the past five seasons and ranks 8th in SG: Total at this venue since 2019.
4. Maverick McNealy ($9,200; T3 – 2024, T16 – 2021): McNealy came close at this venue last seaosn finishing T3. He’s got plenty of distance off the tee and is an elite putter so this venue does line up nicely with some of his strengths.
RECENT FORM
1. Chris Gotterup ($10,000; T3-win): Gotterup is on a real legacy run at the moment. After beating Rory at the Scottish Open, he then proceeded to land a Top 5 finish at the Open. He’s undoubtedly one of the hottest players in the world at the moment.
2. Wyndham Clark ($9,800; T4-T11): Clark impressed overseas, landing a T11 in Scotland and a T4 in Ireland at the Open. The American sets up well for this week’s venue, so unless he’s too gassed from those efforts, he should compete this week as well.
3. Rickie Fowler ($9,500; T14-T18): Fowler is starting to play some solid golf. The American landed a T7 at the Memorial last month and then knocked off a great final round in Ireland, where he finished T14. He needs points as we head into playoff season on the PGA.
4. Kurt Kitayama ($8,700; T13-T5): Kitayama’s game is finally coming around. After lots of putting woes held him back mid-season, he’s now put together a few nice results in a row and is gaining big off the tee and on approach.
5. Rico Hoey ($7,800; T34-T8): Hoey has been consistent of late and could be a name to watch at TPC Twin Cities. He’s a great iron player and has landed two top 10s in his last two starts, now coming into this week.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Pendrith and Bhatia at nice prices
There isn’t a heavy favorite at this event, so starting with a 9k player like Taylor Pendrith ($9,400) this week does have merit. The Canadian has played well all season and didn’t play the weekend in Ireland, which gives him a bit of a rest advantage over the field. He was top 5 at this event last season, and with a great off-the-tee game, he sets up well for this venue, which also won’t stress him around the greens, an area of weakness for him. Below him, Akshay Bhatia ($8,000) is another name to consider as he simply looks too cheap in this field. The American made the cut last week in Ireland and gained over 7.9 strokes on approach just two starts ago in Detroit.
Tournaments: Could be the spot for Thorbjornsen
BIg and long off the tee with an approach game that has looked solid over his few starts, Michael Thorbjornsen ($8,500) is certainly looking like a player who will be inside the winner’s circle of a PGA event quite soon. He missed the cut here last season but, having landed Top 5 finishes at other TPC venues already in River Highlands and Deere Run, Twin Cities shoud be a great setup for him longterm. Below him, Tom Kim ($7,400) is another name to consider as his approach game has started to come into form of late, and he’s still a fantastic talent, even if he has been in a funk most of the season. Below 7k, names like Kris Ventura ($6,800), Nick Hardy ($6,700 – see below), Luke List ($6,700), and Nick Dunlap ($6,100) all present as nice boom or bust values.
MY PICK: Doug Ghim ($7,300)
Ghim is coming off a decent week at the Barracuda where he landed a T20 finish. The American has been playing solidly of late, shooting a 62 in Round of the John Deere, a tournament where he also gained over 6.8 strokes on approach and over 2.0 strokes off the tee.
Ghim’s a fantastic iron player who is also very consistent off the tee, and his strengths line up well with this venue. He’s had a T6 at the PLAYERS and T5 at the Amex, two Pete Dye venues that also feature a ton of water and require solid approach play to succeed. From a course history perspective, he’s now played TPC Twin Cities five times and finished top 25 in each of the past three seasons. Also noteworthy is the fact he’s putted quite well on the greens at Twin Cities, gaining over 2.0 strokes putting here in each of the past two seasons.
At $7,300, he’s a solid value to target this week for DFS and a player who could be a legitimate longshot play for betting at +8000 for an outright on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
MY SLEEPER: Nick Hardy ($6,700)
Hardy was my sleeper at this event last season, and he made out OK, landing a T46 finish. This year, he again looks like a decent deep sleeper to target. Despite missing the cut last week at the Barracuda, the American has been trending well with his irons again, gaining +2.5 strokes on approach at the ISCO, where he also finished T8. While he is a little boom or bust, Hardy also finished T11 at the Charles Schwab in May, shooting three rounds of 68 or better.
From a profile perspective, he aligns very nicely with some of the recent winners of this event like Lee Hodges and Jhonattan Vegas, who both had weak around the greens and overcame some recent putting woes to post a monster week at this venue. Hardy’s not someone I would use in cash games or 50/50 lineups necessarily, but at $6,700, he’s the kind of boom-or-bust player who could win you a big field GPP this week if all goes to plan.
For betting, I also think he’s being discounted a bit in the outright market at +17000 on DraftKings Sportsbook, which is undervaluing how good his long game has been in recent starts.
