After an exciting WNBA All-Star weekend that saw Napheesa Collier add to her tremendous season with an All-Star Game MVP, the second half of the season will get underway this afternoon. Arguably the highlight of the five-game slate will be an 8 p.m. ET clash between the Indiana Fever and the defending champion New York Liberty.
Notably, Caitlin Clark is set to miss the game as she recovers from a groin strain, while Jonquel Jones is expected to return for the Liberty after missing a month with an ankle sprain.
New York is an 11.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook (-575 Moneyline), with the total set at 163 points. Below, I’ll break down the clash and offer a prediction.
Fever at Liberty prediction, pick
Jones’ return has been a long time coming for the Liberty, who have gone just 5-5 since she got injured. The former MVP, Finals MVP, Most Improved Player, and Sixth Player of the Year has averaged 12.1 points and 9.6 rebounds per game this season. Notably, New York is a ridiculous 17.0 points per 100 possessions better on defense with her in the lineup and 25.2 points per 100 possessions better overall, the third-largest on-off disparity of any player in the league who’s played at least 100 minutes. Over the first seven games of the season, before her initial ankle sprain, the Liberty held opponents to 46.2% shooting within five feet. In the last 10 games, starting with the June 19 clash in which Jones left after nine minutes with the aggravation, that figure has skyrocketed to 61.8%.
It’s unclear whether the Bahamian will be on any sort of a minutes restriction. In her initial return from the June 5 injury, which cost her two games, she played her regular load and had a 10-10 double-double in 25 minutes, but given that the re-injury was more severe and the five weeks that she’ll have missed represent the shorter end of her recovery timeline, it’s possible that Sandy Brondello will be cautious with her star. Still, given her otherworldly impact numbers, any Jones is better than no Jones. Her imposing presence inside allows New York’s other stars, Sabrina Ionescu and Breanna Stewart, to thrive. Ionescu shot 43.2% from the field alongside Jones in the first seven games and has languished at 29.0% while she’s been out, while Stewart’s efficiency dropped from 54.1% to 43.9%.
Still, it may take some time for the Liberty to adjust back to having Jones back and for Jones to re-acclimate herself with the speed of the WNBA game, and while New York has looked impressive in stringing together three consecutive wins headed into the All-Star showcase, 11.5 points is an aggressive line even against a Fever team missing Clark. Indiana has still won its non-Clark minutes this season, outscoring opponents by 2.1 points per 100 possessions, and it has gone a solid 4-6 without her, though it lost by 21 to the Liberty last Wednesday. In particular, Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston are legitimate stars, and though both players’ efficiency might suffer somewhat with Jones patrolling the middle, Boston is highly unlikely to go one-for-eight from the field again.
The Fever’s defense is for real: this season, Indiana has held opponents to just a 30.6% mark from beyond the arc, as well as the third-fewest rebounds and second-fewest assists. That charge has been led by Boston, as well as 2019 Defensive Player of the Year Natasha Howard, and those players’ length could present Stewart and Ionescu with challenges, though Stewart played rather well last Wednesday. The Fever have adopted a defensive-oriented identity this season, and in that respect, Clark — a league-average defender at best — hasn’t been missed. Their grit will be enough to cover, even though the Liberty will win.
