The WNBA is back after its All-Star break, and with every team having played between 21 and 24 games, the new-look 44-game regular season is halfway complete. At the midpoint, the league looks extremely likely to have a new MVP: Napheesa Collier is the runaway favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook with -700 odds, while three-time winner A’ja Wilson has just the fourth-best odds (+6000).
Wilson has 22 games to make the case that she should win the honor for the third time in four years. Her journey begins tonight with a 10 p.m. ET home clash against the Atlanta Dream. The Dream will be without second-leading scorer Rhyne Howard, who was ruled out for the rest of July with a hyperextended knee.
The Aces are 1.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-115 Moneyline), with the total set at 161.5 points, and Atlanta is -105 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the clash and offer a prediction.
Dream at Aces prediction, pick
Las Vegas has had a surprisingly mediocre season after winning back-to-back WNBA titles in 2022 and 2023 and finishing 27-13 last season. The Aces made a major move in the offseason, dealing Kelsey Plum to the Los Angeles Sparks, and started off just 5-7 before finding their groove in the last 10 games, going 6-4 with three single-digit losses. In that span, Wilson has looked every bit like her prime self, averaging 23.9 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks per game while making 52.1% of her shots and 79.2% of her free throws. This season, Las Vegas has outscored opponents by 4.9 points per 100 possessions with Wilson on the floor and been blitzed by 15.1 points per 100 possessions with her off of it.
In her last two games before the break, Wilson showed no signs of the wrist injury that forced her to miss the Aces’ July 10 loss to the Washington Mystics, and now that she’s had an additional five days to recover (All-Star game notwithstanding) there’s no reason why she shouldn’t play at least 32 minutes tonight. I expect her to be effective; though the Dream have held opponents to the league’s lowest field goal percentage within five feet, thanks in large part to the rim protection of offseason addition Brittney Griner, they’ve allowed the second-highest field goal percentage from five-to-nine feet. Wilson is the league’s most prolific shooter from that range, attempting 4.7 such shots per game.
So Wilson’s going to get hers, but Las Vegas’ chances depend largely on the rest of the roster. That’ll be a tough task against an Atlanta team with an elite perimeter defense that has posted the league’s third-best defensive rating and sixth-lowest opponent three-point percentage since two-time former All-Defensive honoree Jordin Canada made her season debut. It’s not just Canada, though; Allisha Gray helped hold Sabrina Ionescu to three-for-20 shooting in the July 13 loss to the New York Liberty and ranks second on the team in defensive win shares. The hosts’ supplementary stars are also not in great form, as Jewell Loyd has posted 36-23-94 shooting splits over her last six games and Chelsea Gray has recorded fewer than 10 points in five of her last seven games.
The Dream’s fourth-ranked offense should be good enough to challenge the rest of the Aces’ defense; no Las Vegas player besides Wilson has recorded more than one defensive win share this season. Though Allisha Gray has been inefficient as of late, all five Atlanta starters average more than 10 points per game, and Te-Hina Paopao contributed 13 points off the bench in last Wednesday’s blowout win over the Chicago Sky. Gray’s efficiency should improve against an Aces team that, despite rostering Wilson, has allowed the league’s highest field goal percentage in both the restricted area and the non-restricted paint and among the highest from the midrange and from each corner. Wilson’s carry job won’t be enough.
