After taking most of the week off for the All-Star break, Major League Baseball is back with a jam-packed Saturday with all 30 teams on the field. After a few games throughout the afternoon, 12 games are scheduled for under the lights, starting at 6:00 p.m. ET or later. With so many good matchups on the board, there are some juicy home run props to consider if you are looking for a few long-shot plays for Saturday night. After taking a look at the environments, matchups, splits and current form, my top home run props for Saturday are from Mike Trout, Jose Ramirez and Randy Arozarena.
Just a quick reminder, as we dive in, all home run props are, by nature, long-shot bets. Even the best home run hitters can’t count on going deep in any single game, so home run props are never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators to check out, there’s no certainty even if every single factor seems to indicate a long ball is ready for launch. Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on due to their extreme volatility.
What makes home run props exciting is that long odds yield big returns when they do hit. It also makes sense to use these home run props with other picks in SGPs or parlay plays. I usually also like to play them at a small unit size in round robins, which boosts their ceiling even higher if multiple home run props hit on any given day. They’re always a fun way to flex your knowledge and celebrate when one of your batters bash one, so get those QTs and RTs ready on X!
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Saturday night.
Best HR Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Mike Trout to record 1+ home runs (+230)
Trout always gets some extra attention when he’s facing the Phillies since he is from nearby southern New Jersey. He typically has a large group of friends and family in the stands, but he is still searching for his first career homer at Citizens Bank Park. Tonight shapes up to be the night that changes.
On Saturday, he’ll take on Taijuan Walker, who he is 11-for-19 (.579) against in the past, including three home runs. Walker has been up and down for the Phillies this season, allowing seven home runs in 58 1/3 innings for a 3.55 ERA and 4.30 FIP. Of those seven homers, six were at Citizens Bank Park, and righties hit four of them.
Trout comes in with some good momentum after picking up two hits and a double in Friday’s win. He is 14-for-49 (.285) in his 14 games in July, and half of those 14 hits have gone for extra bases, including four home runs. On the season, he has 17 homers, a .356 wOBA and a 52.9% hard-hit rate.
The specific matchup and his recent form should put him in a smash spot at these +230 odds on Saturday night at Citizens Bank.
Jose Ramirez to record 1+ home runs (+310)
Another nice option to consider for home run props this Saturday is Guardians 3B Jose Ramirez. I highlighted him as one of my top MLB DFS fantasy baseball plays as well, since he’s in a good spot and has a favorable matchup against the Athletics.
Ramirez has hit five homers in his last 11 games, going 12-for-39 (.308) with two doubles, a triple and a .471 wOBA.
He didn’t homer on Friday, but he did have a double, a triple and two runs scored in the Guardians’ victory.
On Saturday, he’ll take on Luis Severino in the second game of the series against the A’s. Ramirez has lit him up in the past, going 6-for-19 (.316) with three home runs in their past meetings. Severino has struggled lately, giving up at least five runs in four straight starts.
Ramirez has hit 14 of his 18 homers this season against righties, including seven of his eight at Progressive Field. He’ll hope to add to that total on Saturday night as he continues to power the Guardians’ nice bounce-back after their 10-game skid at the beginning of the month.
Randy Arozarena to record 1+ home runs (+360)
The Mariners host the Astros in an AL West matchup at the end of Saturday’s schedule. While Cal Raleigh has got all the attention he deserves for his home runs, he isn’t the only Mariner who has been mashing and has gone on a home run binge lately.
Arozarena has an impressive 10 homers in his last 14 games dating back to before the break, and he homered on Friday in his first game after the break as well.
Arozarena is up to 18 homers on the season, and two-thirds of those have come at home, where he has a .364 wOBA. He has also hit 14 of those 18 homers off righty pitchers, and he’ll go against a righty on Saturday, facing Lance McCullers Jr. of the Astros.
McCullers is 2-4 in his 10 starts with a 6.48 ERA, 5.77 FIP and nine homers allowed. Righties like Arozarena have hit six of those dingers and have posted a .614 slugging percentage and .447 wOBA on the season.
Arozarena went 6-for-13 with a home run against McCullers in their past meetings. Despite his power production lately, he’s still over +350 on Saturday night, making him a great value to consider for your home run props.
