After taking most of the week off for the All-Star break, Major League Baseball is back to stuff the summer nights with plenty of baseball. That includes this Saturday night with nine games stacked on the evening slate, which starts at 7:05 p.m. ET. The starting pitchers are a little shaky, so it should be a slate with plenty of offense available. In this post, you can check out my top MLB DFS picks for the Saturday night slate.
At this time of year, weather is always a critical factor to monitor. Hitting weather is on tap in Chicago and Colorado, although there could be some storms in the mix in Atlanta and Tampa. Cleveland is another spot that could be wet, so be sure to double-check the latest forecast before lineups lock to see if your MLB DFS picks need any tweaking.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $125K Relay Throw [$20K to 1st]
PITCHER
Stud
Zebby Matthews, Minnesota Twins at Colorado Rockies, $7,400: In what could be an unorthodox strategy, I’m skipping way down the list to get my stud play for Saturday’s slate. The matchups near the top of the board are all sketchy, and I love the “boom-or-bust” upside that Matthews brings.
The risk is obvious — he’s pitching at Coors Field in what should be good hitting weather and has a 5.21 ERA in his four MLB starts. He’s also just coming off the injured list, so he may not be fully stretched out.
However, Matthews has plenty of upside too. He has a 3.08 FIP and 3.39 SIERA, showing his ERA jas been a little unlucky. He also has looked very sharp in Triple-A with a 2-1 record, 1.72 ERA, 2.05 FIP and 1.09 WHIP. Last Sunday, Matthews started a rehab game and went four shutout innings, allowing just one hit and striking out nine of the 13 batters he faced. He also has a 30.1% K% in 19 innings with the Twins and had over 17 DraftKings fantasy points in each of his last three starts.
Against the strikeout-prone Rockies, Matthews should be able to compensate for any damage with enough K’s to be a strong option. Going with him as the SP1 leaves tons of salary for the rest of your roster.
Value
Kumar Rocker, Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers, $6,400: Rocker is another young pitcher who has flashed a good ceiling but also been inconsistent. At under $6,500, though, he’s worth a play against the Tigers. The 25-year-old righty has an ugly 6.39 ERA this season, but his metrics show his ERA is a little inflated since he has a 4.87 FIP, 4.07 xFIP, and 4.11 SIERA.
He had some good momentum before his last start when the Angels got to him, going 2-0 with a 2.49 ERA, 3.68 FIP, and 20 strikeouts in 21 2/3 innings in his previous four starts. At home this year, he has averaged 19.0 fantasy points per start with a 2.35 ERA, a 2.34 FIP, a .218 batting average against, and 21 strikeouts in 23 innings.
While the Tigers are a hard-hitting lineup, they have lost five straight while only scoring 17 runs (3.4 runs per game). While they still aren’t safe to pick against and aren’t an easy matchup, they aren’t one you have to avoid no matter what.
INFIELD
Stud
Michael Busch, Chicago Cubs vs. Boston Red Sox, $5,400: The wind is expected to be blowing out at Wrigley, which should lead to plenty of offense in the Windy City even though Brayan Bello ($8,300) has been solid for the Sox lately. Busch has been outstanding for the Cubs against righties this season and has recently moved up to the leadoff spot in several matchups.
He’s hitting .287 with 19 homers and a .402 xwOBA overall. Against righties, he’s hitting .305 with 17 of those homers and a .417 wOBA. He’s also hot in July, hitting .362 with a .487 wOBA and five homers. In his 13 games this month, he has a 56.3% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 95.9 miles per hour. Busch has averaged 12.2 fantasy points per game over his last 10, and he’s a nice pay-up play at first base.
Stud
Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics, $5,700: On the opposite corner, Ramirez continues to rake for the Guardians. He had 19 fantasy points on Friday, giving him at least that many in six of his last eight games. He’s 9-for-29 (.310) in those eight games with two doubles, a triple and four home runs.
In his career, Ramirez is 6-for-19 (.316) with three home runs against Luis Severino ($6,600), who has given up at least five runs in four straight starts.
Value
Angel Martinez, Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics, $2,800: Martinez has been an excellent value play for the Guardians over the last few weeks. The 23-year-old switch-hitter can slot at second base or in the outfield depending on the rest of your roster construction. On Friday, he went 2-for-5 with a double and 12 DraftKings fantasy points in my MLB DFS value picks.
Over his last 10, he is hitting .282 (11-for-32) with six doubles, three homers, one stolen base and an average of 10.5 fantasy points per game. He hit leadoff against the lefty on Friday and will likely drop in the order against Severino, but he still brings very nice upside.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins at Colorado Rockies, $6,500: Buxton and the Twins are in a great spot at Coors Field against the Rockies and Antonio Senzatela ($4,500). The weather is expected to be ideal for hitting in Denver with warm temperatures and the wind blowing out. Senzatela is 3-13 on the season with a 6.60 ERA and a .352 batting average against him.
Buxton comes into this juicy spot averaging 13.4 DraftKings fantasy points per game over his last 10 games. He has multiple hits in four straight starts and is 15-for-26 (.577) in those contests. He had 22 fantasy points in the series opener on Friday and he should continue to crush at Coors on Saturday.
Stud
Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves, $3,500: Stanton wasn’t in the lineup on Friday to start the first game after the All-Star break, but he picked up a pinch-hit, two-RBI double off the bench to still finish with nine fantasy points. Since he returned from elbow injuries in mid-June, he has hit .257 with four homers, a 1.102 OPS and 6.9 fantasy points per game.
He has been especially locked in over his last 10 games with a .457 wOBA, a 63.2% hard-hit rate, and an average exit velocity of 94.8 miles per hour. He has averaged 9.8 fantasy points in those 10 games and is a good play against lefty Joey Wentz ($6,200) on Saturday.
Value
Tyler O’Neill, Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays, $3,100: O’Neill has been limited to just 30 games this season for the Orioles, but he always brings plenty of power upside. He hit 31 homers last year with a .360 wOBA for the Red Sox, but only has three homers with a .259 wOBA this season.
He’s only 3-for-22 since returning from injury, but one of those three hits was a home run. He gets a good matchup against Zack Littell ($8,100), who has given up more home runs than any pitcher in the majors this season. O’Neill is high-risk, but his power gives him a good ceiling.
