WNBA All-Star weekend is upon us. The players are out in Indianapolis partying, the vibes are high, and we’re ready to see a showcase of skills. That gets started on Friday night with the Skills Challenge and the 3-Point Contest. Let’s take a look at the field of shooters for Friday night:
As you can see, Caitlin Clark’s withdrawal from the contest due to injury has had a profound effect on the odds. Liberty star and three-point sniper Sabrina Ionescu is moving close to even odds as the runaway favorite. Few can forget her legendary 37-point performance in her 2023 victory.
Indiana’s own Lexie Hull is being called upon to replace Clark. At 47% from deep over the last two years, I can think of no better replacement. It helps that she’s playing in front of a home crowd.
Now that we know the field, let’s dig into a prediction and the best pick.
3-Point Contest Prediction
It’s difficult to pick against Sabrina. It would be like picking against Ken Griffey Jr. in a home run derby; once you’ve seen what someone can do at the height of their power, it’s impossible to forget.
Call me boring, but I can’t pick against Sab now that Caitlin Clark is out of the picture. The two will have some legendary 3-point contests in the future, but we’ll have to wait another year. The problem is that Ionescu at near even odds doesn’t present enough value for me, and the opening rounds of the contest can be fickle. That makes me look down the board for value.
The Pick
Allisha Gray at the second-best odds made me think. The 2024 3-point contest winner is a tempting proposition. But my eyes settled on the last entrant to the contest: Lexie Hull.
With far and away the highest 3-point percentage of any player in the contest, I’m surprised her odds aren’t better. She’s got a fluid release that won’t leave any balls on the rack. Playing in front of her home crowd gives her a slight advantage the others don’t have. And at the fourth-longest odds, she presents the best value on the board. I’m riding with Lexie to avenge Caitlin Clark’s absence and steal the crown from Sabrina Ionescu.
