While other leagues have experimented with different formats, the MLB All-Star Game has always been about the American League against the National League. While interleague play does make it less unusual to see stars from different leagues facing off, it’s still a great rivalry with the American League taking 10 of last 11 games while the National League has won five of the last six Home Run Derbies. Which league will come out on top this year in Atlanta? Let’s take a look at the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook!
DraftKings Sportsbook has a number of fun markets on the board for this year’s Home Run Derby, including the longest home run hit, the highest exit velocity, and a number of player-specific markets. There’s also a series of options based on the American League and the National League.
Here are the odds in that AL vs. NL market and a few of my picks for Monday night at Truist Park.
League of Winner: National League (+105)
The National League has had plenty of success in recent years in this event, even overcoming big names like Aaron Judge and Jose Ramirez. This year, there is a lot of extra unknown in the field since seven of the eight players are participating for the first time.
Some players are built for Home Run Derby while others really struggle, but most of the time it’s hard to know until the event gets underway. The only player in this year’s field who has participated before is Matt Olson, who hit a solid 23 homers in 2021 but didn’t move on to the second round since Trey Mancini beat him head-to-head.
Olson will have the advantage of being at home for this year’s event, and the lefty should take aim at the Chop House early and often in right field. As an Atlanta native and the Braves’ rep, he should have plenty of hometown support.
He’ll provide veteran leadership and some experience for the NL squad that includes Oneil Cruz and James Wood. Wood and Cruz have the second and third shortest odds to win the event on Monday, while Olson has the fourth-shortest.
The American League does have five players compared to the National League’s three, which is why the odds are in their favor this Monday night. However, only Cal Raleigh has shorter odds than the three NL hitters, so I actually like taking the power three from the NL at plus-money to pull out the win.
Total Derby HRs by American League Players under 142.5 (-115)
The American League has five players as noted above, but I think they’ll end up under this number on Monday night. To have an idea if the over or under makes more sense, it’s important to consider the format of the event.
In case you forgot since last year, each of the eight players has three minutes or 40 pitches (whichever comes first) to hit as many homers as possible in the first round. At the end of that time, each player will have a bonus period of three outs. Any swing besides a home run counts as an out. If a player hits a home run of at least 425 feet within the bonus period, they get an extra out in the bonus period.
Last year in Round 1, 138 homers were hit for an average of 17.25 per player. The top four then advance to the semifinals, which are seeded into a head-to-head bracket. Last year, players hit about 15 homers in the semifinals and 13 and 14 in the final. The winner, Teoscar Hernandez, finished the night with 49 homers.
The five AL players will likely get around 80-90 homers in the first round, but that still leaves them needing lots of work in the semifinals and finals. The key will be if they get two players into the semifinals or three players into the semifinals. Since I like Wood, Cruz and Olson to have at least two of those spots, I think the American League will likely have two players in the semifinals, which will lead to them coming in under this home run total even if they do end up with the winner.
If the National League wins, as I picked in my first selection in this post, the AL could finish well under this total.
