All-Star weekend continues in Atlanta with the Home Run Derby on tap for Monday night. It’s a fascinating field of eight players and should be an exciting night with a good mix of young players and veterans, along with plenty of power potential. Seven of the eight are making their Derby debut, so lots of uncertainty remains around what to expect. One fun market available on DraftKings Sportsbook, alongside picking the winner, is picking the player to hit the longest derby HR.
Here are the odds for that market followed by a couple of my favorite picks to hit the longest home run on Monday in Atlanta.
Player to Hit Longest Derby HR – Byron Buxton (+450)
Buxton has the second-longest homer in the majors this season, per Statcast.
That 479-foot dinger is the longest homer by anyone in the field since only Mike Trout has a farther shot this season. Oneil Cruz has the second-longest in the field at 463 feet, but he’s the favorite while Buxton brings awesome value at +450, the third-shortest in the field.
Buxton comes in hot after Saturday’s cycle (on his bobblehead day, of course), and he has 21 homers on the season. If recent form matters in Home Run Derby results, Buxton also has good momentum with eight homers in his last 22 games, logging a 56.1% hard-hit rate and 18.2% barrel rate over that span.
Getting the player with the longest homer in the field at the third-shortest odds makes Buxton my No. 1 choice for this prop on Monday night, and he’s also one of my favorites to go deep into the event, which would give him more chances to go long and end up on top of this prop.
Player to Hit Longest Derby HR – Jazz Chisholm Jr. (+2500)
Chisholm has the longest odds on the board for this market, but he brings pretty impressive value at 25:1. I like him as a longshot flier, since his showmanship seems to be a good fit for the event, and he has plenty of experience at this stadium from his time in Miami.
Chisholm’s longest homer of the year came early in the season against the Brewers, measuring at 442 feet.
That homer was the longest homer from Chisholm since 2021. It was also his first of the season, but now he’s up to 18 homers on the year despite missing time on the injured list and only playing 65 games. He has eight barrels and a 26.7% barrel rate in his 11 games in July, while hitting seven homers during that span.
Chisholm’s long homer in the highlight above is longer than any homer this season from Junior Caminero, Matt Olson, Brent Rooker and even Cal Raleigh. He has HR Derby experience from the Don’t Blink Home Run Derby held in his native Bahamas, and I think sleeping on Chisholm could be a mistake this Monday night.
