All 30 teams are on the schedule for this Saturday, July 12, as Major League Baseball gets ready to turn its attention to Atlanta for the All-Star break next week. If you can’t wait for Monday’s Home Run Derby and want to start the festivities early, there are some strong home run props to play this Saturday afternoon. Eleven games are on tap for the afternoon with four more under the lights. Stay tuned for more picks for tonight’s action, but in this post, we’ll focus on some home run props from the afternoon action. After looking at the home run props on the board, some of my favorite home run props are from Byron Buxton, Elly De La Cruz and Jac Caglianone.
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and swing for the fences—all home run props are long-shot bets by their very nature. Even the top home run hitters go yard in under half of their games, meaning home run props are never “safe” picks, even if every single factor seems to indicate a long ball launch is imminent. Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on due to their volatility.
What makes home run props exciting is that the long odds result in big returns when they do hit. It also makes sense to use these home run props with other picks in SGPs or parlay plays. I also like to play them at small money in round robins, boosting their upside even higher if multiple home run props hit on any given day. They’re always a fun way to flex your knowledge and celebrate when one of your hitters goes yard—get those QTs and RTs ready on X!
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Saturday.
Best Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Byron Buxton to record 1+ home runs (+235)
Buxton is one of my favorite picks in Monday’s Home Run Derby, and he’ll look to get loose for that competition on Saturday afternoon at home against Pirates’ starting pitcher Mike Burrows.
The environment should be set up for Buxton on Saturday afternoon, with the wind blowing out in Minneapolis at Target Field. Buxton has 20 homers in 76 games on the year, and 11 of those (55%) have come in day games (47% of his total games). Exactly half have come at home, and 16 of those 20 homers have come against righty pitchers, who he has a .365 wOBA against.
Buxton has nine homers in his last 22 games, along with a 54.0% hard-hit rate, a .369 ISO and .413 wOBA.
Burrows is a good matchup for Buxton as well since the 25-year-old righty has a 1.59 HR/9 on the season with a 3.63 ERA but a 4.52 FIP and 43.4% hard-hit rate that indicate his ERA isn’t as high as it should be based on the quality of contact he has given up. He has allowed seven homers in his nine starts, with four hit by right-handed hitters like Buxton, who have a .324 wOBA against him.
Buxton is in a smash spot this afternoon at home against Burrows, so climb on board for a Buck Truck on Saturday. There’s also a Buxton Bobblehead narrative to consider if you’re into that kind of thing–and who isn’t?
Elly De La Cruz to record 1+ home runs (+255)
Let’s keep the swag dialed up to 11 and head to Cincinnati for the second pick in my home run props this Saturday afternoon. Elly hasn’t homered in 16 games, but all the signs are good for him this afternoon against Bradley Blalock and the Rockies.
De La Cruz has 18 long balls on the season, with 13 coming against right-handed pitchers like Blalock. He is still looking for his first homer of the month, but that isn’t because he isn’t smashing the ball. In his five games on this homestand, he has a 69.2% hard-hit rate with an average exit velocity of 95.1 miles per hour. On Friday, he walked four times (three intentionally) with a smashed triple in his other at-bat.
Blalock rejoined the team from Albuquerque to take the spot in the rotation previously held by Chase Dollander. In his five games (three starts) with the Rockies earlier this season, the righty allowed 23 runs in 16 innings on 27 hits, including six homers. Lefties hit four of those homers, and the switch-hitting De La Cruz will face him from the left side this Saturday. In Triple-A, he didn’t fare much better with an 8.32 ERA and seven home runs allowed in 44 1/3 innings.
Not only is it a beautiful matchup for Elly, who is rounding into form, but there’s another giveaway narrative on the board here.
The giveaway narrative aside, De La Cruz is in a juicy enough spot to play his home run props regardless of whether you’re into his basketball jersey or not. He’s enough of a threat to go deep on any afternoon, never mind against such a soft matchup in a game that could get high-scoring in a hurry at Great American Ball Park.
Jac Caglianone to record 1+ home runs (+700)
For the last of my home run props, let’s really swing for the fences with a long shot. Rookie Jac Caglianone has plenty of power–that’s for sure!
Caglianone is only hitting .146 in the majors, though, which explains why his odds are so long this Saturday. For home run props, though, batting average doesn’t matter as much since it only matters if he goes deep.
All four of his homers this season have come in his last 20 games, and two came in his last three contests after going yard on both Wednesday and Thursday against the Pirates. Three of his four homers have actually come against lefties, including the one in the highlight above, and two have come at home at Kauffman Stadium. Cags had another hard-hit ball on Friday night, but he went 0-for-4 in his first game against the Mets.
In the minor leagues, Caglianone had 15 homers in 50 games before his promotion and had a 57.5% hard-hit rate in Triple-A. He seems to be making the adjustment to the majors and should continue to find opportunities to go yard.
He could be in a good spot to do that on Saturday afternoon against Mets starter Frankie Montas. Montas has only made three starts for the Mets this season and has given up four home runs in his last two outings, including three to left-handed hitters like Caglianone.
Since the rookie is still not fully comfortable in the majors, this is a long-shot play in my home run props, but getting it at +700 represents amazing value. I think he has a much better chance to hit a homer than the odds indicate and am rolling with the rookie as the third of my home run props for the afternoon.
