It’s always fun to go back and check your work, right?
Well, that’s sort of what I’ll be doing today. All the way back on February 20, I wrote an article where I picked three of my favorite “long shot” bets for the 2025 World Series. They were as follows: The Red Sox, the Diamondbacks and the Cubs. A couple of those look pretty decent at the moment, while one looks like pure lunacy — so I think I’ll give myself a passing grade.
Now we find ourselves at the All-Star Break. A time for celebrating past performance, but also a time to look forward and project. Let’s take a second swipe at these World Series odds. Here are my top picks for an MLB championship at the mid-way point of the regular season.
2025 World Series Champion Odds
Chicago Cubs (+1200)
Here’s what I whipped up about the Cubs back in late February:
“I’m not going to say that I think the Cubs are an elite team. However, I believe their odds might be the best on the board as we sit days away from Spring Training games getting underway. The reasoning is pretty simple: Aside from the aforementioned Dodgers, it appears that Chicago is the most assured lock to win its division.”
Ironically, while Chicago is just a half-game back of Los Angeles for the best record in the National League, the NL Central isn’t going to be a cakewalk, as the Brewers have won seven straight entering the All-Star break and sit only a game behind the Cubs in the division. Still, despite the competition, FanGraphs gives Chicago 93.8% odds of making the playoffs. I can also assure you that the Cubs will be conjuring some headlines at the upcoming MLB trade deadline.
Thanks to the simultaneous breakouts of Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago enters the break tied with the Dodgers (+255) for the best lineup in the NL by wRC+ (117). Where the Cubs need some help — and will likely acquire some help — is their rotation. While Javier Assad (oblique) and Jameson Taillon (calf) should be back before the end of the year, a season-ending injury to Justin Steele (elbow) looms large, as the lefty had posted a 2.74 xERA in 2024 across 24 starts. Surprising All-Star Matthew Boyd has picked up some of that slack, but he and Shota Imanaga are currently the only two healthy arms that Chicago would trust in a playoff series. With the status of Kyle Tucker unknown heading into 2026, now is the time for the Cubs to be aggressive. Expect the organization to make a trade that will boost their pitching staff and move these odds significantly heading into August.
Finally, it’s worth noting that Chicago has the second-easiest remaining strength of schedule by opponent winning percentage (.482). I still believe they’ll get that crucial first-round bye from the Wild Card.
Milwaukee Brewers (+2500)
This might seem counterintuitive to everything I just wrote, yet stay with me. While I might not subscribe to the theory that the Brewers will chase down the Cubs and win their division, a Wild Card berth does seem likely — which is pretty miraculous considering where Milwaukee was a few weeks into 2025. Not only did the team get destroyed by the Yankees and their torpedo bats in the opening series of the season, but the Brewers were seemingly losing starting pitchers to injury with every passing minute. Things were bleak.
Now? Well, Milwaukee has so much starting pitching depth at its disposal, that it was able to send Chad Patrick down to Triple-A at the beginning of July. For some context, Patrick was, at one time, the Brewers’ most reliable starter and, despite some recent blowups, he was still in possession of a 3.52 ERA and a 3.52 FIP over 94.2 innings at the MLB level as a rookie. How could an arm performing that solidly suddenly become superfluous? Do that names Brandon Woodruff and Jacob Misiorowski mean anything to you?
Woodruff is back off the IL after not throwing a single pitch in 2024, and though the fastball velocity hasn’t quite returned as of yet, the 32-year-old has struck out 18 batters with a 12.6% swinging strike rate across his first 10.1 innings in 2025. Meanwhile, Misiorowski is the talk of the MLB world after getting a shocking All-Star nod just five appearances into his big league career. However, these are the kind of things that can happen when you average 99.0 mph with your four-seam and you manage to strikeout 12 hitters in your start against the Dodgers. If these two can stay healthy, they’ll form a three-headed monster with Freddy Peralta that I don’t think any team will want to see in a playoff series.
Boston Red Sox (+3500)
Though I stand by my February claim that the Red Sox were a great World Series future, I’m sort of hoping that no one took that advice, as they were +2200 at the time. At the All-Star break, the team’s odds are now +3500, despite the fact that Boston is the hottest club in baseball, having ripped off 10 consecutive victories, and capping that impressive streak with a four-game sweep of the division-rival Rays (+5000).
Full disclosure: The American League is very odd in 2025. A week ago, it felt like Tigers (+700) and the Astros (+950) were set to run away with first-round byes, yet a four-game losing streak for each team has brought them back towards the pack. I remain optimistic about Detroit’s ability to lead the league in wins when everything is said and done — partly a product of how weak the rest of the AL Central is — but other than that, this is a total crapshoot. At least, the pecking order in the playoffs feels like a crapshoot. The teams involved? Those almost appear to be set in stone. In fact, there are only seven clubs in the AL with a record above .500 at the break and one of those seven is Tampa, who has dropped 11 of its last 14 contests and could look for any reason to sell off parts on expiring contracts. Parts like Brandon Lowe, Pete Fairbanks and Zack Littell.
This is all a long-winded way of saying that I think the Red Sox are going to make the playoffs and that the team should probably have World Series odds closer to those of the Mariners (+2000) and the Blue Jays (+2000). Boston’s bullpen is a little suspect beyond Aroldis Chapman and it’s rotation is unstable aside from Garrett Crochet, but at least one of Tanner Houck, Patrick Sandoval or Kyle Harrison should help in the season’s second-half. The lineup also looks much deeper now that Alex Bregman has returned from the IL, Trevor Story’s bat has come alive since the beginning of June and Ceddanne Rafaela has become the second-coming of Babe Ruth. Just remember, this unit is much more than simply hoping that Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer reach their ceilings.
