Spring Training is less than two weeks underway, but I know you. I know society. We don’t have time to build tension and patiently wait out a 162-game regular season schedule. You and I both want to know how it all ends. Right. Now.
So here it is. The answer to the question of who will win the 2025 World Series. Well, maybe. I’m actually going to give three different picks just to cover myself a little bit. I’m also not going to choose any of the favorites, because where’s the fun in that?
Let’s try and predict the future, shall we?
2025 World Series Champion Odds
Boston Red Sox (+2200)
The Red Sox have toiled in mediocrity the past few seasons, winning 78, 78 and 81 games, respectfully, since the beginning of 2022. It appears that ownership has grown tired of this pattern. Boston has been one of the clear winners of the offseason, bringing in the likes of Garrett Grochet, Alex Bregman and Walker Buehler. However, the internal additions are almost more impressive. Triston Casas is healthy after playing in just 63 contests in 2024. Trevor Story appeared in only 26 games. Garrett Whitlock threw 18.1 innings. Heck, Lucas Giolito never even tossed a single pitch in a Red Sox uniform last year.
If Boston can get some injury luck in 2025, it has both the top-end talent and the depth to compete for the AL East crown. The Red Sox also sport one of MLB’s best farm systems, which could not only help at the big league level this season — think Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell — but could just as easily be used at the deadline to acquire pieces more oriented to a win-now mindset. The presence of the Yankees and the Orioles always makes this division a beast, yet Boston currently feels like a safe bet to at least snag a Wild Card spot. As Texas proved in 2023, all you need is a ticket to the dance.
Arizona Diamondbacks (+2500)
Last season ended in heart-breaking fashion for the Diamondbacks, with the team on the outside looking in after the Mets and Braves clashed for a double-header in what felt like a classic Game 163 scenario. Still, there’s a lot to like about how the past two campaigns have played out in the desert. Obviously, Arizona made an improbable run to the World Series in 2023 after sneaking into the postseason with a Wild Card, but the 2024 squad was arguably better. In fact, the Diamondbacks won 89 games last season and sported a very noteworthy 90-72 pythagorean record. They also led baseball in runs (886), wOBA (.337) and positional player fWAR (33.8).
So, what’s different heading into 2025? Well, the lineup certainly doesn’t look as imposing at first glance with the losses of Christian Walker and Joc Pederson, as the latter slashed .275/.393/.515 with a 151 wRC+ in a platoon role in 2024. However, Walker’s numbers from last season are nearly identical to Josh Naylor’s, so it stands to reason that the Canadian first baseman can do a passable job at replacing Arizona’s former All-Star. I’d also expect a bounce-back performance from Corbin Carroll, who sophomore slumped after winning NL Rookie of the Year.
Where the Diamondbacks really improved was the starting rotation, signing free agent Corbin Burnes to big money to join a unit that already featured Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt. The Burnes/Gallen duo is one of the best in baseball and should make Arizona a tough out against any opponent in a potential Wild Card series, and let’s be honest, with the Dodgers in the NL West, the D-Backs’ path to a championship does not likely include a division title.
Chicago Cubs (+3000)
I’m not going to say that I think the Cubs are an elite team. However, I believe their odds might be the best on the board as we sit days away from Spring Training games getting underway. The reasoning is pretty simple: Aside from the aforementioned Dodgers, it appears that Chicago is the most assured lock to win its division. That doesn’t just mean a spot in the playoffs. It means a possible bye through the always tumultuous Wild Card round. That’s incredibly important.
PECOTA’s projections for the 2025 regular season not only say that the Cubs are going to win over 90 games, they say that Chicago will be the only team in the NL Central to finish above .500. I have to say, I sort of agree with that view point. The Brewers overachieved in 2024 and will now have to shoulder the losses of Willy Adames, Devin Williams and Frankie Montas. The Reds are young and fun, but still seem a couple pieces away from contending. The Cardinals are a mess and were one of the few teams that didn’t hand out a single MLB contract in free agency. Finally, I wrote up my feelings on the Pirates and their putrid offense earlier this week.
The Cubs have long been an organization in search of a superstar. They now have one — for at least one season — in Kyle Tucker. Since the beginning of 2021, Tucker is slashing .280/.362/.527 with a 145 wRC+ and a 19.1 fWAR. An injury wiped out most of Tucker’s 2024 campaign, yet in the 78 games he did play, the 28-year-old blasted 23 home runs with an eye-popping .419 wOBA. Tucker is the type of talent that can carry a lineup. While I do have serious questions about Chicago’s pitching staff, I’d also look for the Cubs’ front office to try and maximize the time they have Tucker under contract. That should mean being aggressive at the trade deadline.
