The Home Run Derby starts off All-Star week with plenty of swag and style this Monday. It’s set to be an exciting field of young players mixed with a few veterans in what should be a wild ride packed with plenty of prodigious power. While the playoffs bring extra drama, the meat of the contest is in the first round, where each of the eight players has a chance to advance. DraftKings Sportsbook has a variety of markets available for the contest, and one of the juiciest quick-hitter groups to consider is the head-to-head Round 1 market.
In Round 1, each player gets three minutes or 40 pitches to hit as many home runs as possible. At the end of that time or pitches, whichever comes first, each player gets a three-out bonus round. A home run of 425 feet or longer during the bonus period earns the player a fourth out.
The top four will advance to the playoffs, but for these props, we’re just taking one player over another straight-up, head-to-head. Here are my top three head-to-head bets for Round 1 on Monday.
Round 1 Most Home Runs – Oneil Cruz over Cal Raleigh (+100)
Cruz and Raleigh are the two favorites in the field to win the event, with Raleigh holding a slight advantage. In this head-to-head prop, we’ll focus on just the first round, though, where I think Cruz could come out firing on all cylinders.
Cruz is the exit velocity king and should flourish in this format, stepping into the spotlight of the All-Star game after spending the first half doing work for the Pirates. Cruz has 16 homers on the season, including three in his last 12 games, with a 61.1% hard-hit rate.
If it comes down to athleticism and pure power upside, I’ll take Cruz against the field, and I’ll also take him in this head-to-head in Round 1.
The only way to get plus-money on him in Round 1’s head-to-head matchups is by taking him against Raleigh. Raleigh has definitely been impressive in the first half and deserves all the love he has gotten, but he isn’t a proven commodity in the home run derby and could fatigue in the format.
It’s the Derby debut for both these stars, but I’ll take the young athlete over the veteran in this head-to-head prop.
Round 1 Most Home Runs – Matt Olson over Brent Rooker (-115)
In another entertaining head-to-head matchup, I’m taking the hometown hero Matt Olson over Brent Rooker. The odds for this are even with both players at -115.
Olson not only has the home-field advantage at Truist Park, but he is also the only player participating in the Derby for a second time. He hit a solid 23 homers at Coors Field in 2021 but didn’t move on to the second round since the format then was head-to-head in all rounds, and Trey Mancini edged him out in Round 1.
The lefty Olson should also have an advantage against the righty Rooker based on the configuration of the park, which is deeper to left and left-center than it is to right and right-center.
Olson comes into this event with the second-highest average exit velocity in the field, behind only Cruz. Rooker has just a 47.8% hard-hit rate compared to Olson’s 54.4% hard-hit rate.
Rooker has more homers (20) than Olson (17), but Olson’s batted-ball metrics give him an advantage in addition to it being held at his park with the fans rallying behind him. Can Olson ride the wave of crowd support to the win? I’m not sure, but I do think he’ll out-homer Rooker in Round 1.
Round 1 Most Home Runs – Byron Buxton over James Wood (+140)
I like both these players to move on to the second round, but I love the juicy odds in taking the Buck Truck to pick up more home runs in the first round than James Wood.
Buxton comes into the event swinging a hot stick after hitting for the cycle on Saturday (on his bobblehead day, naturally), and he has 21 homers on the season. He has a 56.1% hard-hit rate and 18.2% barrel rate over his last 22 games with eight home runs.
Wood has tons of raw power and the potential to go off, but the 22-year-old only has four homers in his last 20 games, with a 48.9% hard-hit rate and 15.6% barrel rate. He has 24 homers and a 55.6% hard-hit rate on the season, but those numbers have been trending down a little bit lately, while Buxton’s have been trending up.
Wood does have the advantage of being a lefty, but I think Buxton can overcome that and bring great value at these plus-money odds in this Round 1 head-to-head.
