With the All-Star break around the corner and Monday night’s Home Run Derby coming up fast, Major League Baseball has all 30 teams on the schedule for Saturday. While most of the action is in the afternoon, there should still be some home run props to attack from the four games under the lights. Earlier on Saturday, I broke down some of my top home run props from the afternoon slate, but let’s take a look at the options from the eight teams on the schedule Saturday night. My top plays from the Saturday night slate include Kyle Schwarber, Eugenio Suarez and Nick Kurtz.
Before we dive into tonight’s picks, it’s definitely worth remembering that all home run props are long-shot bets by nature. These home run props are never “safe” picks and should not be heavily relied on in your betting strategy since they are extremely volatile.
What makes home run props exciting is that the long odds result in big returns when they do hit. You can combine these picks with other selections in SGPs or parlay plays, or you can combo them in round robins, boosting their upside even higher if multiple home run props hit on any given day. They’re always a fun way to flex your knowledge and celebrate when one of your hitters goes yard—get those QTs and RTs ready on X!
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Saturday night.
Best Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Kyle Schwarber to record 1+ home runs (+230)
Normally, I try to find players with longer odds if possible, but for Saturday night’s home run props, Schwarber is a great play at this price even though he may be a little “chalky.” I highlighted his recent success in my top MLB DFS picks for the day, and I also like playing his home run props as he takes on Yu Darvish.
Schwarber is up to 30 Schwar-bombs on the season, with 16 on the road and 16 against righties. As usual for the lefty, his power production has come in clusters. He has three homers in his last three games and eight in his last 20 contests. In those 20 games, he has a .389 ISO and .472 wOBA, along with a 26.5% barrel rate and average exit velocity of 94.2 miles per hour.
Schwarber had no trouble hitting it out of pitcher-friendly Petco Park on Friday night:
On Saturday, he’ll face Darvish, who is making just his second start of the season. In their past meetings, Schwarber is 5-for-14 (.357) with two doubles and two home runs. Since he’s going so well and in a matchup where he has crushed in the past, he’s a solid play to extend his home run streak to four games on Saturday night in San Diego.
Eugenio Suarez to record 1+ home runs (+285)
Suarez is just one homer away from 30 on the year, and he’ll have a good matchup to attack on Saturday night against lefty Yusei Kikuchi, even though Angel Stadium isn’t especially homer-friendly. Suarez has hit homers everywhere this year, though, with eight of his 29 long balls (28%) against lefties in just 80 at-bats (23% of his season total).
Suarez is 3-for-9 against Kikuchi with a home run in their past meetings, and he has eight homers in his last 20 games, along with a .414 wOBA and 47.2% hard-hit rate.
Suarez’s name has floated around as a potential bat on the move before the MLB Trade Deadline, and his impressive power production has definitely driven up his value. When he reaches 30 homers this year, it will give him 30+ long balls in four of the last five years. If he keeps up this pace, he could even threaten his personal best of 49 homers back in 2019 with the Reds.
On the limited slate Saturday night, Suarez stands out as a good value in a favorable matchup among the home run props on the board.
Nick Kurtz to record 1+ home runs (+340)
Kurtz doesn’t have an easy matchup against veteran starter Kevin Gausman and the Blue Jays on Saturday night, but the powerful lefty 1B has been one of the regulars in my home run props this season. Kurtz has consistently produced power numbers at home, and the weather and environment in Sacramento this Saturday night is optimal for home runs.
Kurtz homered on Thursday and on Friday, giving him 16 homers on the season, with nine of those blasts coming in his last 21 games. Over that stretch, he’s hitting .276 but has a .448 wOBA and .408 ISO. He has 45 batted-ball events over those 21 games with a 48.9% hard-hit rate and 22.2% barrel rate.
Of his 16 homers, 12 have come at Sutter Health Park, where he has a .444 wOBA, and 14 have come off right-handed pitching. Kurtz has a .414 wOBA against righties with an impressive 165 wRC+ in the split.
Gausman has been good but not unhittable this season for the Blue Jays, and lefties have hit eight of the 13 homers off the veteran this year. Lefties have only a .186 batting average but have still had good power numbers against him.
Kurtz seems underpriced at +340 on this slate, and in homer-happy Sacramento, I think he’ll deliver another big fly on Saturday night.
