Major League Baseball has 15 games spread throughout this Saturday, with six games under the lights and nine games in the afternoon. With several intriguing matchups spread across the board for this holiday weekend, it should be another great day of hardball on the diamonds. Let’s take a look at the 30 starting pitchers on the board and find some strong starting pitcher prop bets, with a focus on the games later in the day. After looking at the markets and options on the board, my top props on Saturday include selections from Jack Kochanowicz, Casey Mize and Stephen Kolek.
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Best Starting Pitcher Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jack Kochanowicz under 2.5 strikeouts (+115)
Kochanowicz has the unenviable task of trying to slow down the Blue Jays this Saturday afternoon. Toronto has won six straight and eight of its last nine games, averaging 7.5 runs per game over that stretch.
Kochanowicz is 3-8 in 17 games with a 5.44 ERA and 5.54 FIP on the year. He has had a few big strikeout games, but he has been under this strikeout total in three of his last four games.
The reason I like this as one of my top starting pitcher prop bets for this Saturday, even though it’s aggressively low, is because the Blue Jays do such a good job at strikeout suppression. They have a league-low 17.6% strikeout rate on the season and have been even better with a league-low 16.1% strikeout rate over the last 30 days. Over the last month, they have averaged just 6.2 strikeouts per game, and I think they’ll be able to keep the Ks to a minimum again in this matchup with Kochanowicz.
I’m also not sure he’ll be around very long, given his recent struggles and the fact that he has averaged under five innings per game over his last six starts.
Casey Mize under 2.5 runs allowed (-140)
Mize and the Tigers are on the road in Cleveland in one of the two games that start the night slate at 7:15 p.m. ET. The 28-year-old righty has been excellent this season, finally delivering on the promise that made him the top overall pick back in the 2018 MLB Draft.
Mize is 8-2 in his 14 starts with a 2.86 ERA, 3.88 FIP and 1.21 WHIP. Mize has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight outings and in seven of his last eight. He faced the Guardians during that productive run, allowing just one earned run in five innings in a no-decision.
Mize has only given up more than two earned runs in three of his 14 starts this season, and the Guardians haven’t looked likely to pile up a bunch of runs against many starters lately.
Over the last month, no team in baseball has scored fewer runs than the Guardians, who are averaging only 2.7 runs per game with a league-worst .201 team batting average and .265 wOBA over that span.
While it is definitely possible they get to Mize for three runs, it seems much more likely that he continues his strong form and they continue to struggle on Saturday night in Cleveland. The two converging trends make this one of the strongest starting pitcher props on the board this Saturday.
Stephen Kolek over 16.5 outs recorded (-115)
In my top MLB DFS picks for the day, I highlighted Kolek as a top value to consider in this matchup against the Pirates in San Diego. I’m also taking him as the third of my starting pitcher prop bets to work at least 5 2/3 innings in this matchup.
Kolek went exactly 5 2/3 in his last start against the Reds and has gone over this total in four of his last six starts and six of his last 10. He even threw a complete game in one of those starts, although that did come in a rout in Colorado. Kolek will likely be just over or just under this number either way, but since he’s facing the Rangers, I think he’ll be able to work just enough outs to go over.
The Rangers have the seventh-lowest team batting average in the majors over the last two weeks and the fourth-lowest wOBA. They have the fifth-lowest wRC+ at 78, meaning they have been 22% below league average in run production over those two weeks.
Since Kolek looked better in his last contest, I think he’ll be able to get at least as deep into this game against the struggling Rangers.
