On Saturday, Major League Baseball has nine afternoon games with six games on the main slate under the lights, which begins at 7:15 p.m. ET. The Tigers and Guardians face off in Cleveland while the Astros visit the Dodgers in the other early game. In the later games, some homer-happy stadiums in Denver and Sacramento should provide more offensive fireworks to enjoy this Saturday night. From the 12 teams on the slate, here are my top MLB DFS picks for Saturday night.
At this time of year, weather is always critical to keep an eye on, but the good news for Saturday is that the late games look clear for the most part. The weather in Los Angeles should be a slight boost for bats with the wind blowing out and temps in the 80s. Coors Field and Sutter Health Park don’t need much help to be homer-happy, and both have warm temps forecast for Saturday night.
Let’s dive in and get started with my top MLB DFS picks for Saturday night.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $125K Bat Flip [$25K to 1st]
PITCHER
Stud
Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants at Athletics, $10,200: Saturday’s slate is a little light on pitching, which is why I’m rolling with Webb even at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park. Webb has been good enough to overcome the environment and the veteran has brought both a high floor and a high ceiling throughout this season.
On the season, Webb is 7-6 in his 18 starts with a 2.61 ERA, 2.32 FIP and a 1.14 WHIP. He has posted 127 strikeouts in 113 2/3 innings, which would be a new career-best K%. He has averaged over 21 fantasy points per game on the year and has 16+ fantasy points in seven straight and 10 of his last 11 outings. He’s put up at least 25 fantasy points in four of those starts, including a high point of 31.55 fantasy points against the Guardians.
He had 23.8 fantasy points in eight strong innings against the Athletics earlier this season and will look to post another strong outing Saturday. Even though the A’s are a less-than-ideal matchup, he should get run support going head-to-head with Luis Severino ($6,700), who has struggled at home this year.
Value
Stephen Kolek, San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers, $7,600: Kolek isn’t exactly low-risk, but he is one of the better options on the board, especially pitching at home against the Rangers, who have struggled offensively this season, especially on the road.
Since joining the rotation, Kolek has posted mixed results in his 11 starts, going 3-3 with a 3.73 ERA and 3.87 FIP. He looked sharp in his last outing against the Reds, going 5 2/3 innings and finishing with 18.35 fantasy points in a no-decision. He is averaging 13.7 fantasy points per start this season, and he had a high point of 39.05 fantasy points in an impressive outing in Colorado.
Kolek has shown a high enough ceiling to be the best play under $8,000 this Saturday, especially since the Rangers have only hit .229 on the road this season with a .297 wOBA, both of which rank in the bottom 10 in the majors.
INFIELD
Stud
Jose Altuve, Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers, $4,800: Altuve went yard twice in Friday night’s 18-1 romp in Los Angeles. He finished with 47 fantasy points in that game and has double-digit fantasy points in four of his last five games, averaging 18.6 fantasy points per contest.
Over his last 23 games, Altuve has hit .293 with six homers and a .420 wOBA. He and the Astros will face Shohei Ohtani as an opener and then lefty Justin Wrobleski ($6,500). Altuve is a .324 career hitter against lefties, so he should be able to stay hot on Saturday night as the Astros continue their series in L.A.
Value
Willy Adames, San Francisco Giants at Athletics, $3,800: Adames is only hitting .219 on the season with a .294 wOBA, but he has shown some signs of life lately. He has gone 7-for-18 (.389) over his last five games with at least one hit and one hard-hit ball in each of those five games.
He’s in a good spot against Severino at Sutter Health Park. Severino has a 6.79 ERA and 4.32 FIP at home, and Adames is 4-for-13 against Severino in their past matchups, with a home run and three RBIs.
Value
Michael Toglia, Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago White Sox, $3,600: Toglia has an even worse batting average than Adames, but he also brings good power upside against the White Sox at Coors Field. He has hit safely in five straight games, and since rejoining the team after a trip to the minors, Toglia is hitting .242 with three homers and a .320 wOBA. His strikeout rate is still ridiculously high, but when he does make contact, it usually goes far, especially in the rarified air of Coors Field.
The switch-hitting Toglia will be on the strong side of the splits against Jonathan Cannon ($6,100), who has a 45.3% hard-hit rate against him on the year with a 4.59 ERA and a 4.85 FIP. Lefties have hit .271 with a .356 wOBA against him, and eight of his 11 homers have come on the road, where he has a 5.16 ERA and 5.11 FIP. Rockies’ lefties should offer good value as a result, and Toglia has good potential at just over $3,500.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers, $5,600: Tatis and the Friars will take on Patrick Corbin ($6,500) as the Rangers visit San Diego on Saturday night. Tatis went 1-for-4 with a triple and 12 fantasy points on Friday and he has at least nine fantasy points in four of his last five games. He’s hitting .267 with two homers, four stolen bases and a 44.4% hard-hit rate over his last 20 games.
Tatis has gone 5-for-9 with three walks and a double in his past meetings against Corbin. Tatis is hitting .270 with a .382 wOBA and 154 wRC+ at home this season, and 11 of his 15 homers have come at Petco Park. His recent form and good matchup make him a strong option to build around Saturday night.
Value
Cam Smith, Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers, $3,700: Smith has turned his rookie season around after a slow start and has been putting up great fantasy numbers since making a swing adjustment in mid-May. He has posted double-digit fantasy points in seven of his last eight games, averaging 15.0 fantasy points per game over that stretch.
In his last 20 games, Smith is hitting .395 with a .461 wOBA, five doubles and four home runs. That impressive run is backed up by a 50.8% hard-hit rate. He’s settled into the heart of the ‘Stros order and is in a prime run-production spot. He has also mashed lefties in his time in the majors, so look for another big night from Smith this Saturday.
Value
Jahmai Jones, Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, $3,000: Jones is expected to hit leadoff against lefty Logan Allen ($7,200) on Saturday, which would put him in an outstanding spot for run production for the surging Tigers.
Jones joined the Tigers 20 games ago and has hit a blistering .343 with two homers and a .434 wOBA. The Tigers have mostly used Jones against lefties, and he has gone 11-for-29 (.379) in the split with a .508 wOBA. He has an impressive 60.7% hard-hit rate with an average exit velocity over 93 miles per hour, so it’s no fluke that he’s been so productive while helping the Tigers fill in for multiple outfield injuries.
