The PGA heads to Illinois this week for the annual John Deere Classic, a full 140+ player event that is held at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, IL. There are just two weeks left before the Open Championship, so many of the top players will be off this week, leaving us with a very wide open field. For Pick6 purposes, our focus will be on the course, and we again have a very simple venue for the players to attack, which should lead to plenty of lower scores.
TPC Deere Run is a shorter Par 71 that features three very easy Par 5s that allow a ton of birdies and eagles. Last season, Davis Thompson set the scoring record here at -28, and Hayden Springer opened the event with a 59. The course isn’t very long, but you do need to find fairways off the tee. After that, it’s a pretty simple setup with players who find a ton of greens in regulation capable of going low at any point if their putter gets hot. Consistency is the key, as you need players who will be consistent (and hit a ton of greens and fairways) and not get frustrated if they start missing too many putts.
I wrote more about TPC Deere Run in this week’s John Deere Classic PGA DFS Cheat Sheet.
“Winners at Deere Run don’t dominate off the tee from a power perspective, but finding an abundance of fairways has been a trait of most recent winners. While Thompson is more of a powerhouse off the tee, the two winners before him are not big hitters. However, both Sepp Straka (2023) and Poston (2022) gained over 2.5 strokes off the tee, which set them up for a big week on approach.
For stat purposes, players who are gaining fairways at a high rate could be great targets this week, but putting and approach play is still where winners have tended to gain the most on the field. Deere Run features some of the purest greens on the PGA, so we often see an overabundance of putts made from 15-25 feet. In 2022, players sank 18% of their putts between 15-25 feet, the fifth-highest rate on the PGA.
Last season, Thompson gained an ungodly 7.4 strokes putting for the week, while Straka (+6.8 strokes putting) also outperformed on the greens. In this respect, while approach play is important, this is a week where players’ finishing positions are generally made or broken around and on the greens. So if there is a player who is coming in hitting the ball well and can flip the script and go positive with his putter, a big week can be had.”
Putting can be variable, so for this week, I’m more focused on players who have shown some good ball-striking stats coming in and will hopefully give themselves a shot at finding their stroke on the greens. Unlike last week, where focusing on power was more key, we want to find players who will find a ton of fairways and greens. Course history is also something to consider, although the course is reasonably straightforward. Overall, consistency on approach, GIR% and total driving (or SG: OTT) is where you likely want to lean for stats.
DraftKings Pick6 has full tournament totals up for this week, so I’ll again be focusing on FULL TOURNAMENT totals, specifically finishing positions (“Better Than” or “Worse Than”), but also the holes played market, which essentially acts as a “make or miss the cut” question.
Top DraftKings Pick6 Picks for the John Deere Classic
Kevin Yu Better Than 34.5 Finishing Position
Kevin Yu is in the midst of a very solid season. He bagged his first win in the fall swing of 2024 at the Sanderson Farms and has followed that up with a solid 2025 that includes a third place finish at the Canadian Open and a fourth at Myrtle Beach. He’s played the Deere in each of the last two seasons and finished T-6 here in 2023 and T-20 in 2024, shooting 63 in Round 2.
This season, he also comes in striking the ball better than ever. He’s eighth in total driving and also ranks top-20 in birdie or better %. Having taken last week off, there is always a chance the putter comes out a bit rusty, but even so, with a 34.5 total on his finishing position, even if he just squeaks past the cutline, he’ll have a great shot at hitting the “better than” play. I can’t see any reason not to be bullish on him at this level.
Chris Kirk Better Than 33.5 Finishing Position
Chris Kirk is coming off a heartbreaking playoff loss last week in Detroit. He’s played great over his last two starts and is doing everything well at the moment and really hitting his irons well, as he’s gained well over 2.0 strokes on approach in each of his last two starts. That bodes very well for this week as Deere Run is a course that is more suited for his classic game anyway, as it puts an emphasis on placement and around-the-green play over power.
Just like Yu, there is a chance that Kirk just comes out of the gates flat after the big finish last week, but we can’t go running from good plays just based on speculative analysis like that. The truth is, Kirk is playing as well as anyone in this field, and we just need him to finish top-33 on a course that suits him and he’s had success on in the past. It feels like a great deal.
Adam Hadwin More Than 36.5 Holes Played
Adam Hadwin hasn’t had a great season, but you get the sense that the Canadian is battling every week, even if his game isn’t at 100%. He comes in having made the cut in four events in a row and now gets a crack at an easier setup in Deere Run, which should take some of the pressure off his driving, which hasn’t been the strongest part of his game of late.
Hadwin did finish T-27 just a couple of starts ago in Canada, where he gained over 3.0 strokes on approach, so again, there are some signs his game may be close to a turnaround. While his form doesn’t look overly bullish, he’s the sort of player who can pop out of nowhere, and for Pick6 purposes, we only need him to sneak past the cutline this week. Given his recent run of made cuts and the positive course setup, I’m fine taking him to make the weekend in this market, where we don’t have to take a payout cut to use him in our lineups.
Luke List Less Than 36.5 Holes Played
Luke List did make the cut last week in Detroit, but it’s been a very up-and-down season for him overall. The 40-year-old ranks well outside the top-100 in both birdie or better % and strokes gained putting, making him a terrible fit for this week’s birdiefest, where players need to convert birdie chances at a high rate or risk not making the weekend.
While he’s still gaining big off the tee, that won’t necessarily give him as big an advantage this week at Deere Run (as it did last week in Detroit). Overall, this hasn’t been a great event for him, and he missed the cut here last season, failing to break 70 in both Round 1 and Round 2. Maybe his putter starts working this week, but given that he lost strokes on the greens in Detroit, that’s not something I want to rely on either. I’d much rather fade him in this spot and have no issues using him to miss the weekend in Pick6 on DraftKings.
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