The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
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The Field
The field this week will again feature 150+ golfers. With only two weeks to go until the Open Championship — and with next week having a big tune-up event on the schedule over in Scotland — many of the top names have decided to skip this week’s event.
As of now, the top player in the field is Ben Griffin, who sits 17th in the OWGR. SungJae Im, who sits 25th in the OWGR, is also in the field. Behind him, names like J.T. Poston (who won this event in 2022) and Jason Day will attempt to give this field a little more star power.
Along with the players anchoring this event at the top of the board, there are also some intriguing young names in the field. Michael Thorbjornsen is playing again after finishing T4 last week, as is Jake Knapp (also T4 last week) and last week’s playoff winner Aldrich Potgieter. This event will also award two qualifying spots to the Open in two weeks, to the highest two finishers who have not already qualified for that event, giving players who haven’t qualified for the last major even more incentive. The regular cut rules (top 65 and ties make the weekend) apply.
The Course
TPC Deere Run, Silvis, Illinois
Par 71 –7,268 yards; Greens: Bentgrass
This is traditionally one of the easiest courses the players see all year. The winning score at Deere Run almost always hits 20-under-par, or better, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see some players threaten for a 59. In 2022, Poston won the event at 21-under and gained over 4.5 strokes on approach and around the greens, and last year Davis Thompson broke the scoring record for this event by shooting 256 (-28). Last year in Round 1, Hayden Springer also opened with a 59 after arriving in poor form
As for the setup, TPC Deere Run is a shorter par 71 and features three par 5s, all of which play very straightforward, and are holes that must be taken advantage of by those planning to compete for the win. Of the past seven winners, only one (Jordan Spieth in 2013) has finished outside the top 10 in par-5 scoring for the week.
That part is obvious, and any player who doesn’t score at least reasonably well on the easiest holes this week will fall behind quickly. The par 4s are also much more manageable than a typical par 71, as only a couple of them tend to play over par for the week. Seven of the par 4s come in under 450 yards in length, making distance off the tee somewhat irrelevant, but finding fairways and short iron play extremely important.
Winners at Deere Run don’t dominate off the tee from a power perspective, but finding an abundance of fairways has been a trait of most recent winners. While Thompson is more of a powerhouse off the tee, the two winners before him are not big hitters. However, both Sepp Straka (2023) and Poston (2022) gained over 2.5 strokes off the tee, which set them up for a big week on approach.
For stat purposes, players who are gaining fairways at a high rate could be great targets this week, but putting and approach play is still where winners have tended to gain the most on the field. Deere Run features some of the purest greens on the PGA, so we often see an overabundance of putts made from 15-25 feet. In 2022, players sank 18% of their putts between 15-25 feet, the fifth-highest rate on the PGA.
Last season, Thompson gained an ungodly 7.4 strokes putting for the week, while Straka (+6.8 strokes putting) also outperformed on the greens. In this respect, while approach play is important, this is a week where players’ finishing positions are generally made or broken around and on the greens. So if there is a player who is coming in, hitting the ball well, and can flip the script and go positive with his putter, a big week can be had.
2025 Weather Outlook: The weather this week does have some wind in the forecast. Thursday starts out nice but the wind rises in the afternoon to where we are likely to see gusts up to 15mph. Those gusts are also supposed to be fairly constant on Friday so it’s possible the early starters may get a slight advantage on Thursday. Saturday actually has gusts up to 20mph+ and also has some thunderstorms in the forecast that could halt or delay play. If that happens, expect the players to have to finish two rounds in softer conditions on Sunday , which is slated to be sunny, but also features winds up to 20mph. The added wind may make this a volatile event and put added pressure on short games.
Last 5 winners
2024—Davis Thompson -28 (over Luke Clanton, CT Pan and, Michael Thorbjornsen -24)
2023—Sepp Straka -21 (Over Brendon Todd -20)
2022—J.T. Poston -21 (over Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Emiliano Grillo -18)
2021—Lucas Glover -19 (over Kevin Na -17)
2019—Dylan Frittelli -21 (over Russell Henley -19)
Winning Trends
- 12 of the last 15 winners of this event had all played at TPC Deere Run in a previous year and made the cut at least once before their win.
- Seven of the last eight winners had gained over 3.5 strokes on approach in one of their previous four starts, prior to winning the John Deere Classic
- Each of the past eight winners of the John Deere Classic played in the PGA event the week prior to their win at TPC Deere Run.
Winners Stats and Course Overview
2024 Winner: Davis Thompson (28-under par); 2024 lead-in form (T2-T9-T27-MC-T17)
SG: OTT—+3.2
SG: APP—+2.7
SG: TTG—+11.3
SG: ATG—+5.3
SG: PUTT—+7.4
- In 2022, Poston continued the trend of winners being very elite with their approach games at Deere Run, but also very solid off-the-tee by gaining 2.8 strokes OTT
- Davis Thompson also dominated off the tee gaining 3.2 strokes OTT for the week. While it’s a short course setting yourself up well on the par 5s and longer par 4s is critical.
- Thompson and Poston also played extremely well around the greens, gaining over 5.0 strokes ATG. We have also seen other players like Spieth dominate at this venue, via the short game.
- Straka didn’t play as well TTG as Poston, or Thompson in 2023, but still had a great week ball striking and putted to his ceiling, gaining over 6.5 strokes on the greens
- Each of the last eight winners of this event has gained over one stroke off-the-tee, and between 2019 to 2023, only one top-five finisher at this event has gained less than 1.0 stroke off-the-tee
- Overall, good weeks off the tee have set past winners up well at this event to take advantage of strong iron play and putting, where they do most of their damage.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Mark Hubbard +4500 and $7,700
Comparables:
Kevin Roy +6000 and $7,400
Comparables:
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change
HORSES FOR COURSES
- Lucas Glover (best finishes: win -2021, T6 – 2023): Glover has multiple top 10 finishes at this event over the past five seasons and won the Deere Classic back in 2021, his first win on the PGA in over a decade. He’s flashed some decent play of late and could be ready for another big week at Deere Run.
- J.T. Poston (best finishes: win -2022, T6 – 2023): Poston is starting become like the modern day version of Zach Johnson at this course, who got in contention every season at Deere Run for nearly a decade. He finished T30 here last year but will be looking for a better result in 2025.
- Adam Schenk (best finishes: T4- 2021 and 2023): Schenk loves these tree-lined, classic setups. On top of finishing Top 6 at Deere Run on three different occasions over the past five years, he’s also finished runner up at Colonial and Copperhead.
RECENT FORM
1. Chris Kirk ($8,900; T2 – T12): Coming off a terrific US Open and a runner-up finish in Detroit. With lots of incentive to chase a win, Kirk should excel again at Deere Run and is excelling in all areas at the moment.
2. Jason Day ($10,500; T4 – T23): Day has put together a couple of nice starts himself, including a T4 in his last start at the Travelers where he was in contention for most of the weekend. The Aussie’s short game is in great form and has gained him over 3.0 strokes in each of his last two starts.
3. Ben Griffin ($10,400; T13 – T14): Griffin continues to pile on solid result after solid result. The American has six straight top 15 finishes, including a T8 at the PGA Championship and a T10 at the US Open.
4. Kevin Yu ($8,800; T25 – T3): Yu is another name who continues to pound out solid results. He finished third at Myrtle Beach two months ago, third in Canada and was a solid T25 last week. His putting remains a weakness but is improving.
5. Pierceson Coody ($8,400; T7 – 3rd – T2): Coody has been tearing up the Korn Ferry Tour of late, posting three straight top eight finishes at that level. While he needs more big weeks on the PGA TOUR, he’s clearly playing well and will look to challenge in this weaker field.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Kirk and Yu in good form
With such a weak upper end of this field there is really no true anchor name that you need to target. Ben Griffin ($10,400) is likely the name most people will gravitate towards but pairing two names in the 8k range like Chris Kirk ($8,900) and Kevin Yu ($8,800) offers just as much upside. Yu is putting well of late and coming off two nice starts, while Kirk was T12 at the US Open and a playoff loser last week in Detroit. Kirk also has loads of experience playing Deere Run making him a perfect core player to build around. Michael Thorbjornsen ($9,100) is also a great upside option who is still affordable in this field and makes sense if you are looking to triple stack in this range. Further down the likes of Alex Smalley ($7,900 – see below) and Kevin Roy ($7,400) look like good values as well.
Tournaments: Gerard could strike
Ryan Gerard ($8,500) has been miserable with his putter of late, losing strokes to the field on the greens in six straight starts. However, he’s been hitting the ball fantastic of late and gained 6.1 strokes on approach with his irons in Detroit. He’s proven he can get hot around and on the greens already this season when he finished T2 at Valero and was a solid T26 at Deere Run in his only visit to the course in 2023. Below him, Nico Echavarria ($7,800) has some appeal after coming off a T6 at the Rocket Classic last week. He’s won on a classic tree-lined course before and has proven he can go low enough to win or compete at these lower scoring events on the PGA. Below 7k, the likes of Adam Hadwin ($6,800 – see below), Adam Schenk ($6,800) and Chad Ramey ($6,900) all hold appeal as larger GPP targets.
MY PICK: Alex Smalley ($8,500)
Smalley makes sense on a number of levels this week. He played extremely well at Deere Run back in 2023 when he finished T2 to Straka who put together a brilliant Sunday round that season to pick up the win. He’s also gone well at a couple of comparable venues in the Country Club of Jackson (T5 2024) and Sea Island (T5 2022). This year will be his fifth time playing Deere Run, and while he missed the cut here last season he should have less expectations weighing him down this time around given he’s not coming off a runner-up finish.
Smalley has also got himself into contention a few times already in 2025, which is a good lead-in to a low scoring event like the Deere. He was in the heat of battle for much of the PLAYERS back in March (T14), had a solid PGA Championship (T28), and finished T5 at the Myrtle Beach Classic, where he just missed out on a playoff down the stretch. Overall, his game sets up great for Deere Run as he’s consistent off the tee, (has gained over 1.0 strokes OTT in four straight starts) has a magnificent short game, and an iron game which has spiked as recently as the Canadian Open, where he gained 5.0 strokes on approach.
He’s exceedingly cheap this week, as well, at 7.9k as he’s coming off a missed cut in Detroit. While you’d perhaps like to see some better lead-in form, he was top 15 in his start prior to Detroit and his price this week has been depressed to the point where he loks like a great value for DFS. For betting, his +4500 outright odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook also looks like stellar value given the overall weakness of this field.
MY SLEEPER: Adam Hadwin ($6,800)
It’s been a mostly brutish season for Hadwin, who comes into this week’s event off a poor weekend in Detroit and with just one top 10 (T9 in Phoenix) on the season. Still, the Canadian has made the cut in his last two full field events and gained over 3.9 strokes on approach in Canada a few weeks ago. While he regressed a little in Detroit, he still squeezed past cutline and gained over a stroke with his putter, a club he can get exceedingly hot with at anytime.
Hadwin has typically done very well at these lower scoring events, and even shot 59 one season at the American Express event played in January in Palm Springs. While his form doesn’t look overly bullish, he’s the sort of player who can pop out of nowhere and proved that last season at the Memorial, where he finished T3 in a loaded field, despite coming off three events where he finished outside the top 50.
At 6.8k, he’s cheap and should be exceedingly low-owned in big field tournaments for DFS purposes. For betting, his top 20 (+600) and top 10 (+1400) odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook make him a nice low investment, high return target in the placement markets as well. .
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
