When a tall, lanky 20-year-old from Dallas donning number 54 made his MLB debut on May 25, 2008, not even he could have predicted the career he was about to have. He has won three Cy Young Awards, two World Series titles, and one NL MVP. He has the case as the greatest Los Angeles Dodger of all time.
Soon, he will add another bullet point to his resume, becoming the 20th pitcher ever to reach 3,000 career strikeouts. He’s expected to hit that mark tonight, when the Dodgers host the Chicago White Sox for a 10:10 p.m. ET affair.
Opposing Kershaw will be a fellow southpaw, Brandon Eisert, who will open the game before giving way to Sean Burke in bulk relief.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers prediction, preview
On paper, this game shouldn’t be close. Chicago finished 41-121 last season, and it has only been spared the ignominy of media attention on its futility because the Colorado Rockies are even worse this season and because the new Pope happens to be a White Sox fan. But make no mistake about it: Chicago is awful, with a 28-57 record that puts them last in the AL Central by 11 and a half games and a .635 OPS, 19 points worse than any other team. It managed just three hits and two walks last night against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Dreyer, and Anthony Banda.
Kershaw isn’t quite the pitcher he once was, but he’s an effective one nonetheless. He no longer generates much power from his left arm, as his fastball regularly sits below 90 miles per hour, and he tends to give up a lot of hard contact, but since he still induces a lot of ground balls and plenty of whiffs, he remains a more-than-viable option to start in Los Angeles’ depleted rotation. His volume isn’t quite as impressive as it once was — he has thrown more than 83 pitches just once in his eight outings — and I expect Dave Roberts to be cautious with him tonight given his lengthy injury history and the fact that Yamamoto lasted seven innings last night.
On the other side, Burke shouldn’t concern the Dodgers much. The 25-year-old has had a few good starts this season, but he’s also prone to the occasional blow-up, such as his 3.2-inning, seven-run, eight-hit affair on June 11 against the Houston Astros. At least he’s fixed some of his control issues; after recording a 30:35 strikeout-to-walk ratio across nine starts between early April and late May, he has issued two or fewer free passes in each of his past five games. However, he’s continued to be plagued by homers — he’s conceded one in three of his last four games — a category in which Los Angeles leads the league.
Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Clayton Kershaw O4.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Kershaw only needs three strikeouts to hit the vaunted 3,000 mark, but I expect that he’ll surpass that number. He’s recorded five or more strikeouts in three of his past four games, a span in which he’s pitched to a 1.57 ERA, and the White Sox strike out at the league’s fifth-highest rate. If you want to bet on Kershaw’s milestone-specific prop bets, my colleague Bryan broke them down here.
Strong Lean: Shohei Ohtani O2.5 Hits + Runs + RBI’s (-105)
The best thing about this prop is that it’s instantly cashed with a home run. The worst thing about it is that for most players, a homer isn’t exactly the expectation. Ohtani is not one of those players; although his homer odds (+175) are much too short for my liking, he leads the league in runs and is ninth in hits and 16th in RBI’s, so it’s not like he needs a home run.
