Clayton Kershaw, the greatest pitcher of his generation, is on the cusp of history. The 37-year-old is three K’s away from recording 3,000 career strikeouts. Assuming the Dodgers superstar makes the cut, he’d become the 20th member of this exclusive club. Will Kershaw reach this impressive milestone during tonight’s matchup with the White Sox?
Tonight, the Dodgers are massive favorites (-339) over the White Sox, with the over/under set at nine runs. Before the start of Tuesday’s contest, here’s my favorite Clayton Kershaw 3,000th strikeout prop bet on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Even casual baseball fans are aware of Kershaw’s two decades of dominance in Dodger Blue. Over 437 career starts in LA, the southpaw has recorded a 2.51 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 216 wins. However, the last two seasons have been difficult for the three-time Cy Young winner. Since 2024, he’s only tossed 68.2 innings in the major leagues due to injury.
The former MVP isn’t the same pitcher he was in his prime; that’s obvious. Still, Kershaw has looked solid for most of this season. Through eight starts, the veteran has notched a 3.03 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. However, his 6.8 K/9 ratio would be a career-worst mark.
Kershaw won’t need to throw a ton of heat to reach the 3,000 strikeout mark tonight. With that being said, he’s generated at least five punch outs in three of his last four appearances. There’s a good chance that continues tonight against the light-hitting White Sox. When playing on the road, Chicago’s batters are averaging 9.48 strikeouts, fifth-worst in the league.
Given how bad the South Siders have been this season, you couldn’t have scripted a better opponent for Kershaw. Still, the question isn’t necessarily if he’ll reach 3,000 K’s, but how.
When taking a look at the board, there’s a few prop bets that offer minimal upside. Kershaw, now a soft-tosser, is unlikely to throw a pitch faster than 87 MPH. Picking which White Sox hitter will be the lefty’s third victim is also difficult to predict. That’s especially true as of this writing on Wednesday afternoon, when neither team has revealed their official lineup.
The most realistic ‘zag’ available for bettors is Kershaw to record his third K via called strike. This season, the hurler has posted a 28.5% strikes looking percentage. That’s fairly close to the current major league leader, New York’s Will Warren (32.6%). Kershaw’s swung at strike percentage is below average at 71.5%. That mark is close to Warren, also the leader in that category at 67.3%. To make things more enticing, White Sox hitters have a below-average 25.8% strikes looking percentage, 13th-worst in baseball.
Add all those numbers up, and it’s clear that called strike offers the most value tonight. A crafty veteran such as Kershaw should have no trouble with this young, inexperienced Chicago lineup. As long as he’s able to command his pitches, the future Hall of Famer is capable of fooling several batters tonight.
