Major League Baseball has eight games on the schedule this Monday night, as 16 teams close out June by starting a new work week with a new series. If you’re looking to close out the month with a blast or get the new work week off to a flying start, there are plenty of home runs props to pick from on a busy Monday night slate. Let’s track down a few home run props for Monday night based on matchup, environment and a player’s current form. For Monday, my top three home run props on the board come from Nick Kurtz, Jackson Holliday and Julio Rodriguez.
Just a quick reminder before we step up to the plate and swing for the fences — all home run props are long-shot bets. Since even the very best home run hitters hit home runs in less than half of their games, home run props are never “safe” picks — even if every single factor seems to indicate a dinger is on deck.
The upside to home run props is that the long odds mean big returns when they do hit. They’re always a fun way to flex your knowledge and celebrate when one of your hitters goes yard — get those QTs and RTs ready on X! Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on. You can also combine these home run props with other picks into SGPs or parlay plays, and I also like to play them at small money in round robins to boost their upside even higher if multiple home run props hit on any given day.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Monday.
Best Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Nick Kurtz to record 1+ home runs (+400)
I featured Kurtz in top MLB DFS plays of the day, and I love the upside he brings playing in a Triple-A stadium at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Kurtz homered in the A’s stops in Detroit and New York and has seven homers in his last 14 games.
The hefty lefty is hitting .321 in those 14 games with a 48.6% hard-hit rate and 18.9% barrel rate. Kurtz has 12 homers in 46 games on the season since joining the Athletics after crushing eight dingers in 21 games in Triple-A. Eleven of those 12 homers have come against right-handed pitchers, who he has a .403 wOBA against on the year.
Kurtz will face righty Drew Rasmussen on Monday, who hasn’t been extremely homer-prone, giving up eight homers in 16 starts. He has given up more homers to lefties than righties and at home than on the road, tilting things a little in Kurtz’s favor for this matchup.
Getting him at +400 feels like favorable odds given his recent surge, and I’m looking for a Kurtz-ain call even though the A’s are on the road.
Jackson Holliday to record 1+ home runs (+550)
Holliday smashed a three-run homer off Patrick Corbin last week:
He’s still at very long odds in this rematch in Texas on Monday night. Holliday has 10 homers on the season, and four of those have come in his last 26 games. He has a 52.4% hard-hit rate and 19.0% barrel rate in his last 13 games and has locked in as the team’s leadoff hitter in all matchups.
He has actually done pretty well against southpaws with a .264 batting average and .315 wOBA on that side of the split. Corbin has been much better this year than he was the last few years, but he has still allowed 12 gopher balls in 14 starts, including four by lefties.
The fact that its a lefty-lefty matchup bumps the odds up to over +500 in Holliday’s home run props, but I think he represents good value while Corbin is in the game and could also find success after Corbin leaves the game.
Julio Rodriguez to record 1+ home runs (+500)
Rodriguez hasn’t been nearly as productive from a power perspective this season, with 11 homers on the year and only one in his 26 games in June. He did hit .294 this past month with six stolen bases, but his lack of recent pop is why his odds have stretched to +500.
He’s in a good spot, though, coming home to finish the month against Michael Wacha and the Royals. Wacha is 4-7 in his 16 starts with a 3.33 ERA and 3.60 FIP. He has allowed nine homers overall. Most of his trouble has come on the road, where he has a 3.98 ERA, 4.14 FIP and has given up a .303 wOBA. He also has given up more homers to righties (6) than lefties (3) this season, which is why I’m leaning towards Julio’s side of the plate.
Rodriguez hasn’t hit a homer in a while, but he has been making good contact. He had seven hits in the team’s three-game series in Texas this past weekend, and he has a 57.1% hard-hit rate over his last 10 games with an average exit velocity of 94.3 miles per hour. For the season, his hard-hit rate is only 44.2% and his exit velocity only 90.8 miles per hour.
Since he’s hitting the ball better, home runs could be coming for Rodriguez, and I like his matchup against Wacha enough to play his home run props this Monday night.
