On the final day of June, Major League Baseball has a six-game main slate on tap that starts at 7:07 p.m. ET when the Yankees take on the Blue Jays in Toronto. That matchup is one of two divisional clashes on the board this Monday, with the other from the NL West, where the Giants visit the slumping Diamondbacks. The early-week series have some very intriguing matchups and plenty of strong options to consider for MLB DFS picks to start the week with a fantasy baseball blast. Let’s take a look at the 12 teams on the main slate and break down some of my top MLB DFS picks for Monday.
As always at this time of the season, weather is a key factor to consider along with matchup and ballpark factor. Most of the main slate forecast is clear this Monday, with some potential early showers causing a late start in Tampa as the one exception. Keep a close eye on lineups and weather forecasts leading up to game time and be ready to pivot as needed.
With all that in mind, let’s break down my top MLB DFS picks for Monday night.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $200K Knuckleball [$50K to 1st]
PITCHER
Stud
Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds, $10,700: Several top arms highlight the slate this Monday, but Crochet is the most expensive and brings the highest ceiling. He has been on fire for the Sox lately, producing at least 27 fantasy points in three straight starts and five of his last six. The other aces on this slate don’t come anywhere close to matching that consistency and production.
On the year, he’s averaging 25.1 fantasy points per start while going 7-4 in 17 outings with a 2.06 ERA, 2.54 FIP, 1.02 WHIP and 11.1 K/9. Over his last five starts, he has 57 strikeouts in 41 innings for a 12.5 K/9, and he has given up more than two runs only one time in his last 11 starts.
The Reds have struggled on offense this season, ranking in the bottom 10 of the league in wRC+ and the top 10 in the league in K%. They have the third-lowest batting average against lefties, hitting only .219 with a 76 wRC+ in the split. Since 100 wRC+ is league average by definition, the team is 24% below league average against southpaws, giving Crochet a smash spot at home against Cincinnati.
Value
Ryne Nelson, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants, $6,700: In my companion piece to this post, I highlighted Trevor Rogers ($6,300) of the Orioles as one of my top MLB DFS Bargain Values. Another great value option if you have a little extra salary is Ryne Nelson of the Dbacks, who has stepped in and filled the void left by multiple injuries to key starting pitchers in Arizona’s rotation. Nelson was a long reliever early in the year but has been effective in whatever role he has filled. He has allowed more than two runs in only two of his 16 games since the start of April, going 4-2 with a 3.20 ERA, 3.92 FIP and an excellent 0.98 WHIP.
He has started six of his last seven appearances, going 3-1 with a 2.62 ERA and 3.96 FIP. He has allowed only 21 hits in his 34 1/3 innings over that stretch with 24 strikeouts. His limited strikeout numbers do cap his ceiling, but he has earned 17+ fantasy points in each of his last three starts, all of which the Dbacks won. The Snakes were just swept by the Marlins, but they will look to Nelson to help them bounce back in this matchup against their division rivals. Nelson has a 2.25 ERA and 2.74 FIP at Chase Field this season, so getting him under $7,000 makes him a great value play Monday night.
INFIELD
Stud
Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners, $5,500: While the Royals’ offense has not been great this season, Witt continues to post excellent numbers and has been surging lately. He’s hitting .285 on the season with 11 homers, 21 stolen bases, a .350 wOBA and an average of 9.3 fantasy points per game. In his last 13 games since mid-June, though, he is hitting .333 (18-for-54) with seven doubles, three homers, a .420 wOBA and an average of 9.8 fantasy points per game. With a little more power production and a 60% hard-hit rate over that span, he seems to be trending up as the Royals head to Seattle.
On Monday night, he’ll take on George Kirby ($7,700), who is still rounding into form after a delayed start to the season with a shoulder issue. Kirby has a 5.40 ERA and 4.50 FIP in his seven starts and isn’t the “stay away” matchup he usually is when he’s in top form.
Stud
Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, $5,000: Chisholm has three homers in his last four games and is hitting .318 since coming off the injured list in early June. He can fit into your roster build at either 2B or 3B and brings excellent dual-threat power and speed potential. He has turned things around after a slow start and brings great upside in any matchup.
He has six homers and four stolen bases in his 23 games since returning from the IL, and he has been especially hot in his last 10 games, averaging 10.9 fantasy points per game. He had a massive 32 fantasy points on Sunday to power the Yankees past the A’s, and he will look to keep rolling as he faces Max Scherzer ($6,500) in his third start of the season for the Jays.
Value
Nick Kurtz, Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays, $3,700: Kurtz has quickly become one of my most commonly used players for MLB DFS, ending up in my player pool just about every time the A’s face a right-handed pitcher. The hulking 22-year-old lefty brings plenty of power potential to any matchup and has been very consistent after a brief adjustment period.
Kurtz has seven home runs in his last 14 games while hitting .321 with a .475 wOBA and 48.6% hard-hit rate. In those 14 games, he has averaged 14 fantasy points per contest. He’ll play at homer-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field against righty Drew Rasmussen ($7,500) on Monday night. Rasmussen has given up five of his eight homers to left-handed hitters, who have a .303 wOBA against him this season.
If you need a value play under $3,000 at 2B or 3B, check out who I highlighted in my top value plays.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, $6,500: Judge had a pair of dingers on Sunday, going 2-for-4 with 36 fantasy points. He stands out as the lone elite outfield play on this slate, and he always brings a very high ceiling, which is hard to pass up if you have the salary available.
His batting average has come down over the last month, but the power potential is still there. He had four homers in his last nine games with a 54.5% hard-hit rate and 31.8% barrel rate. He still leads the majors in barrels per plate appearance and has the third-highest average exit velocity of all qualified hitters. Such great contact always gives him the potential to blast a home run, and he is 4-for-14 (.286) against Scherzer in the past with a double and a home run.
Stud
Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds, $4,400: Reds rookie Chase Burns ($8,000) looked strong in his MLB debut with eight strikeouts in five innings, but he also gave up three runs on six hits to the Yankees. I don’t think he’s a matchup you have to avoid at Fenway this Monday, especially since he probably won’t go deep into the game even in a best-case scenario.
Like a couple of the other players in my picks for the day, Duran brings dual-threat potential from at or near the top of the order. He is hitting only .217 over his last 24 games but does have 11 extra-base hits, two stolen bases and a 46% hard-hit rate over that span. He is hitting .287 at Fenway with a .360 wOBA and .275 against righties with a .349 wOBA in the splits. He’s affordable with a nice ceiling in Monday night’s matchup with Burns.
Value
Jake McCarthy, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants, $2,700: McCarthy is a bargain play with good upside despite his tough matchup with Logan Webb ($9,700). McCarthy spent May and most of June in Triple-A with the Reno Aces after a slow start. He had 12 stolen bases, one home run and a .314/.401/.440 triple-slash in his 49 games at that level with a solid .385 wOBA.
He rejoined the Dbacks after Corbin Carroll (wrist) landed on IL and has gone 4-for-17 (.235) with a home run, a triple and a stolen base to average 8.2 fantasy points per game since being called up. He has the potential to have a big game with a big hit or with a stolen base or two, so getting him under $3,000 is a great option in the outfield if you’re running short on salary.
